Challenge of predicting Texas floods and SCOTUS allows for mass federal layoffs: Morning Rundown

Meteorologists and forecasting experts say the severity of the deadly Texas floods couldn’t have been predicted. The Supreme Court allows Donald Trump to move forward with mass firings. And more pet owners are opting into insurance for their furry family members.

Here’s what to know today.

How extreme weather, geography and timing created Texas’ flood disaster

At least 161 people are missing after catastrophic floods tore through the Texas Hill Country, Gov. Greg Abbott said yesterday, as the desperate search for survivors continues. The death toll rose to at least 110 people.

Meanwhile, scrutiny and questions are mounting about how and when people in the area received flash flood alerts. Among those questions: What actions were taken to notify residents? Were emergency alerts adequate, and who issued them? It was also unclear whether alerts were received on all phones. At a news conference yesterday, local officials and law enforcement in Kerr County couldn’t provide basic details of the emergency response.

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While National Weather Service forecasters had warned broadly about flash flooding ahead of time, the best weather models could not have predicted precisely where the most intense rainfall would land, or that the deluge would stall out over a flood-prone basin, meteorologists and forecasting experts said. Texas state climatologist John Neilsen-Gammon called such a prediction “next to impossible.”

What did happen was that “all the ingredients came together at the wrong place, at the wrong time, at night on a holiday weekend,” said David Gagne, a National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist. Though NOAA is working to build better weather models, that research is on the chopping block.

As science reporter Evan Bush explains, a succession of thunderstorms fed by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry hit the region. Weather charts showed that the south fork of the Guadalupe River took a direct and prolonged hit. Then, instead of moving on, the storms stalled and dumped 10-12 inches of rain over six hours.

Making matters worse, the area — consisting of steep hills and narrow canyons that rapidly funnel water from smaller creeks into swollen rivers — was filled with campers near the river’s edge. If the storm had been even five miles in another direction, it would not have produced as much destruction, Nilsen-Gammon said.

Read the full story here.

More coverage of the Texas floods:

• A 10-year-old who was at Camp Mystic on the night of the floods described the overnight evacuation from her cabin and helicopter flight to safety hours later.

• The Hunt Store has been a community hub in the small Texas town for decades. And it still is, even after sustaining damage in the floods.

Supreme Court allows Trump to move forward with mass firings

The Supreme Court has allowed President Donald Trump, at least temporarily, to move ahead with plans to impose mass firings of the federal workforce and reorganize various government agencies. The decision affects 19 federal agencies, as well as the White House-adjacent Office of Management and Budget, Office of Personnel Management and U.S. DOGE Service.

The court’s decision yesterday was a response to a ruling from California-based U.S. District Judge Susan Illston, who blocked Trump’s plans in May, saying that while the president can seek to make changes to the workforce, there are limits when they are done wholesale. The Trump administration, however, argued that the president does not need permission from Congress to carry out his duties as stated in the Constitution.

The justices made clear that their order is not about the legality of any individual agency reduction in force or reorganization plan, only the legality of Trump’s executive order and an administration memo related to workforce plans. Ketanji Brown Jackson, the only justice to provide a written dissent, sharply criticized the decision as “hubristic and senseless.” Read the full story here.

More politics news:

• Trump said there would be “no extensions” past the new Aug. 1 deadline for U.S. trading partners to negotiate new deals or face significantly higher tariffs on goods imported from their countries.

• Trump also said he will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports and would soon announce tariffs at a “very, very high rate, like 200%,” on pharmaceutical imports.

• Trump promised more military aid to Ukraine while expressing mounting frustration toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• An unknown person or group used an AI voice to impersonate Secretary of State Marco Rubio and contacted at least five high-level government officials, according to a State Department cable.

Rural hospitals brace for painful choices

Small-town hospitals are buckling under strain from Trump’s sprawling domestic policy bill, signed into law last week. It includes sweeping cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act and could result in millions of Americans losing health care coverage.

The package includes $50 billion for rural hospitals, though it won’t be enough to offset the Medicaid and ACA cuts, one expert said. Now, hospitals are already considering how to adapt to a shifting budget, even if some of the Trump bill’s changes won’t take effect for a few years.

Some smaller hospitals are already closing their doors due to growing financial strain. The Nebraska-based Community Hospital said last week that it’s shutting down its medical center in Curtis, a town of around 900 people. In Hugo, Colorado, Kevin Stansbury, the CEO of the Lincoln Community Hospital and Care Center, said he may soon have to start cutting services for patients at the 25-bed rural hospital. And in Kansas, Benjamin Anderson, CEO of Hutchinson Regional Healthcare System, said he’s evaluating how the only hospital for many residents of South Central Kansas will be able to keep offering all of its services, which include hospice and home care, women’s health and pediatric care.

Read the full story here.

Read All About It

• The town of Ruidoso, New Mexico, which was hit last year by devastating wildfires, saw dangerous flooding after heavy rain in the area. One video showed a home being swept down a river.

• A new report includes evidence adding to claims that Hamas used sexual violence as a weapon of war during its Oct. 7 terror attack.
• Formula 1 team Red Bull Racing has sacked Christian Horner as the team principal and chief executive after 20 years in charge.

• Travelers no longer have to take off their shoes to go through security checkpoints at airports across the country, thanks to an updated TSA rule.

• A new lawsuit accuses top officials at the New York City police department of giving promotions to unqualified “friends and cronies” and a former police commissioner of selling promotions for up to $15,000.

Staff Pick: Pet insurance is getting more paw-pular

My cat Macaroni is pretty unusual, and not only because he can whine loud enough to be heard two floors down or because he’s missing a back left paw — but because he’s insured.

Most pet owners don’t buy coverage for their animals. Of the nearly 90 million dogs and almost 74 million cats in the U.S., both species’ insured rates remain in the single digits. But that’s changing fast, as business intern Evie Steele reports. Spending on pet insurance has grown by at least 20% each year since 2020, hitting more than $4.7 billion last year, according to one industry estimate. Evie found consumers have strong opinions on whether pet insurance is worth it — most policies don’t cover pre-existing conditions — but analysts broadly expect the market to keep growing. — Rich Bellis, senior business editor

NBC Select: Online Shopping, Simplified

The discounts are just starting on the second day of Amazon Prime Day. Here are the best smartwatch deals from brands like Apple, Samsung and more. And other retailers are offering major sales, too, like Target and Walmart. You can also find deals on vacuums from brands like Dyson, Shark and others.

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