2025 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more for August

Injuries, trades, hot streaks, cold streaks. The month that has elapsed since the All-Star break has featured a lot of upheaval in the MLB standings and awards races.

This month’s Awards Watch reflects that, as we’ve seen changes atop some races and separation in others. One thing that has changed: Whereas there were some mild disagreements last time out between Awards Watch and the betting markets as tracked at ESPN Bet, the two methods of tracking these things are in complete accord when it comes to anointing the current favorites.

By no means does this mean that any of the awards races are over. As the past month has demonstrated, a lot can and will change in a short period of time in a big league baseball season. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (152 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (146); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (137); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (136); 5. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (131); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (130); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (129); 8. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (127); 9. (tie) Corey Seager, Texas Rangers, Randy Arozarena, Mariners, Maikel Garcia, Royals (126).

Leader trend: Judge has come back to the pack a little but in terms of the AXE standings, the only thing he has relinquished is the top overall spot across the majors — and baseball doesn’t give out a Platinum MVP trophy. (Though maybe it should?)

Judge has struggled with injury and just plain struggled. One way to think about it: Judge’s OPS since the All-Star break is more than 100 points less than his slugging percentage was a month ago. The good news for him is that, statistically and in the betting markets, Judge hasn’t been overtaken by Raleigh. But this race — which more than any other of the major awards chases could have become a runaway — is not over.

Biggest mover: Only three players have seen a bigger AXE jump since the break than Guerrero and he’s one of two candidates to show up on the MVP leaderboard. (Kansas City’s overlooked Maikel Garcia is the other.)

Through Monday, Guerrero was hitting .366/.443/.688 during the second half, leading a hot Toronto offense as the Blue Jays have seized control of the AL East. For now, Guerrero is probably not positioned to make a real run at the award, but if he hits the playoffs as hot as he is right now, look out for the Jays.

Keep an eye on: Raleigh didn’t really take full advantage of Judge’s injury absence, but his power bat has picked up the pace again of late. His average since the beginning of June is well under .200, though, as he has become a little more of the kind of all-or-nothing, take-and-rake hitter he had been throughout his career.

Can he close in on Judge if that continues? Well, we might be overthinking it. If Raleigh hits 60 homers, which he’s on pace to do, he’d also break the single-season record for switch-hitters and catchers, not to mention switch-hitting catchers. If Judge doesn’t get hot again, the homer column might be the only thing that matters for Raleigh, especially if he continues to lead Seattle’s charge for an AL West title.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (140); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs (133); 5. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks, Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies, Juan Soto, New York Mets (130); 8. Will Smith, Dodgers (129); 9. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (128); 10. Trea Turner, Phillies (127).

Leader trend: I wasn’t lying when I declared that none of the races is over just yet — but if we had to pick the least likely to flip, it would be this one. Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong were in a tight back-and-forth race when we last visited the Awards Watch, but since then Ohtani has gone right on being Ohtani while Crow-Armstrong has been mired in a deep slump and has fallen back.

At the plate, Ohtani is just having a kind of ho-hum all-time great season. He’s on pace for 57 homers, 152 runs and 106 RBIs. Over the past month, however, Ohtani has begun to ramp things up on the mound, going deeper into games while still sparkling on a per-inning basis. He has a chance to gain a full win in additional WAR value to tack on to his feats at the plate by the end of the season. It’s a tough combination to match.

Biggest mover: They’re moving in the wrong direction, but as much as Crow-Armstrong has struggled, Cubs teammate Tucker has matched him step for backward step. That has pushed them back both on this leaderboard and from a narrative standpoint as their slumps have coincided with the rival Milwaukee Brewers solving baseball as if they’d discovered the formula for the Rubik’s Cube and left the Cubs settling in as a wild-card team. In terms of watch-over-watch AXE changes, Tucker (No. 1107 in AXE change) and Crow-Armstrong (1126) have taken among the biggest negative hits in baseball.

Keep an eye on: Schwarber has continued to mash at a career-best level and has a great shot at his first 50-homer season while also being on track to win the NL’s RBI title. Lately it has felt as if every time you see a Phillies score flip, it’s because Schwarber has clubbed another moonshot homer with runners on base. He doesn’t create enough non-hitting value to make up the ground needed to catch Ohtani, but Schwarber should be headed for his first top-10 finish in MVP voting.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (143 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (138); 3. Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (131); 4. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (130); 6. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (129); 7. Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals (123); 8. (tie) Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays, Michael Wacha, Royals (121); 10. Max Fried, New York Yankees (120).

Leader trend: The Tigers have slumped, and while that’s not Skubal’s fault, his past month has been a mixed bag and perhaps has kept the window ajar for Crochet.

Skubal outpitched fellow ace Zack Wheeler on Aug. 2 in a 2025 version of an old-time pitching showdown, but followed that up by failing to go five innings for the first time this season against the Angels. When Skubal has run into trouble lately, it has been after he has gone through a lineup a couple of times, so that’s something to watch. Should his hook be a little quicker? Nah. He’s Tarik Skubal.

Biggest mover: Eovaldi hasn’t had an enormous jump in AXE, but it’s hard not to notice that his ERA keeps shrinking, or at least it did until he was rocked by the still-potent Arizona offense for five runs on Aug. 11. It happens. Before then, his game log looked like binary code. He allowed one or zero runs in six straight starts entering that game. Going back to April and sandwiched around an IL stay, Eovaldi posted a Bob Gibson-esque 0.90 ERA over 14 outings.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been remarkably consistent, as if he had been a full-blast No. 1 starter for years instead of this really being his first campaign in that role. Before this season, he had never qualified for an ERA title. This season, he’s leading the AL in wins, innings and strikeouts.

His volume has been essential for a Red Sox staff that badly needed a No. 1 starter who could provide both quality and quantity. Crochet has given Boston more than it could have reasonably wished for.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (140.4 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (140.2); 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (136); 4. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (127); 5. Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres (126); 6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (124); 7. (tie) Nick Lodolo, Reds, Ranger Suarez, Phillies, Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (123); 10. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (121).

Leader trend: We had to go to a decimal point to declare a leader, and the decision — for now — goes to Skenes. The betting markets agree, but things aren’t settled there, either.

Skenes seems to be a good bet to qualify for the ERA title and keep his mark under 2.00, for the season and for his career. His issues will be stakes and volume, and the two things might be related. The Pirates have nothing to play for and little need to push Skenes deep, even if he does take all of his remaining starts.

Over the past few weeks, his pitch counts have trended downward. We’ll have to see where things settle by season’s end, but the next eight pitchers on the leaderboard are all pitching for clubs jockeying for playoff position.

Biggest mover: Sanchez was the answer here last time out and remains so. That’s how hot he’s been — and for how long. Entering his scheduled start Wednesday in Cincinnati, Sanchez has a 2.06 ERA dating back to the beginning of May and has been working into the seventh and eighth inning with regularity. The quality/quantity combo has him leading NL pitchers in bWAR.

Last time out, the NL Cy Young race was topped by Wheeler. Now Wheeler has slipped to third — and second in his own rotation, behind Sanchez.

Keep an eye on: Abbott doesn’t get a lot of acclaim, but he has become the most consistent performer in a deep and potent Cincinnati rotation. Terry Francona’s trust in Abbott might have run a little too deep in the lefty’s last start against Philadelphia, when he blanked the first-place Phils for seven innings before getting touched up in the eighth. With the Reds angling for a playoff slot, a hot finish from Abbott could really open the eyes of Cy Young voters.

Rookie of the Year

Front-runner: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (123 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals (117); 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (115); 4. Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox (113); 5. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (111); 6. Will Warren, New York Yankees (109); 7. Cam Smith, Houston Astros (108); 8. Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox (107); 9. (tie) Colson Montgomery, White Sox, Jacob Lopez, Athletics (106).

Leader trend: Kurtz seized control of this race since we last convened, and not just because of a mind-blowing 6-for-6 July night in Houston that featured four dingers and eight RBIs. He has cooled some since then, but he almost had to. And the cooling has happened only in the power department. Kurtz has a .304 batting average and .435 OBP since that historic performance. Just no homers. He is the real deal.

Biggest mover: It took a while for Montgomery to join the White Sox’s large and productive rookie class, but he’s done nothing but live up to the billing since he reached the majors. Montgomery’s game has its rough edges still, but the power bat — especially for a rookie middle infielder — is the real deal. When he clubbed his 10th homer in 32 games Aug. 11, Montgomery moved within four of the White Sox team lead. He didn’t debut until the Fourth of July.

Keep an eye on: Warren has been more steady than spectacular, but, man, have the Yankees needed that steadiness. Even as the Yankees’ season started to teeter, Warren kept doing his thing. After putting up a lemon in Toronto on July 2, Warren recovered to post a 2.84 ERA over his next seven outings, four of which the Yankees won. In other words, without Warren being able to post every five or six days, things in the Bronx would be even worse.

National League

Front-runner: Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (114); 3. Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (112); 4. Chad Patrick, Brewers (110); 5. Bradley Lord, Washington Nationals (109); 6. Hyeseong Kim, Los Angeles Dodgers (107); 7. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (105); 9. (tie) Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers, Logan Henderson, Brewers, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (104).

Leader trend: Can they just name the Milwaukee Brewers as the NL Rookie of the Year? They might not need to, as Collins has risen into the top spot and finally created some separation in a race that had been muddled all season.

Collins, 28, is not anything like a traditional hyped prospect, though the Brewers have rookies like that, too. But in some ways, Collins is an avatar why the Brewers just keep winning every season while leaving so many experts scratching their heads. When someone graduates from the Milwaukee system — no matter what his advanced billing was or wasn’t, and no matter how long it took — that player is ready to fill a role and help the Brewers win. Collins is just the latest example.

Biggest mover: Let’s keep the spotlight on Collins in this section, because not only has he risen to the top of the race in this category, but only two players in all of baseball have seen more of an AXE uptick since the last Awards Watch. During that time, Collins has hit .388/.473/.626, all while the Brewers have perpetuated a “hot streak” that has grown into a 49-16 stretch that has in turn upturned the World Series chase.

Keep an eye on: The Cubs added infield help at the deadline in Willi Castro, but Shaw has increasingly looked like the long-term answer at third base — which, of course, is what the Cubs had in mind when they made Shaw their Opening Day starter at the hot corner. His defense has been solid-to-outstanding all season, but now he has found his power bat. At the break, Shaw was slashing .198/.276/.280. Since then: .328/.349/.770.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (108.9 EARL)

Next four: 2. AJ Hinch, Detroit Tigers (108.6); 3. Joe Espada, Houston Astros (107.2); 4. Dan Wilson, Seattle Mariners (106.5); 5. Ron Washington/Ray Montgomery, Los Angeles Angels (105.6).

Overview: Schneider overtook Hinch since our last edition, which pretty much mirrors what has happened in the AL playoff seed standings. Wilson is the mover here, as the Mariners have closed in on Houston in the AL West and looked poised for a takeoff.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers (114.5 EARL)

Next four: 2. Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins (108.9); 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Mike Shildt, San Diego Padres (105.8); 5. Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies (103.5)

Overview: Murphy won last year, but as the rookie-laden Brewers have continued to pick up steam, he has become a clear front-runner once again. The last back-to-back NL winner was Bobby Cox in 2004-05.