Where the Russia-Ukraine peace talks go from here: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Kristen Welker breaks down her interviews today with Vice President JD Vance and key officials in Russia and Ukraine. Plus, I examine how Democrats face a structural disadvantage in the national redistricting fight in response to this week’s reader question.

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— Adam Wollner

Where the Russia-Ukraine peace talks go from here

By Kristen Welker

On a Friday filled with major developments, I spoke exclusively with Vice President JD Vance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister.

Through it all, one thing struck me: how very far away from each other Vance and Lavrov seemed on talks to end the war in Ukraine.

During my early-morning conversation with Lavrov, the top Russian diplomat repeatedly stressed that the conditions aren’t yet right for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He suggested that it was Ukraine, not Russia, who was blocking progress on a peace deal, and repeatedly chided Zelenskyy for prioritizing theatrics over substance.

“How can we meet with a person who is pretending to be a leader?” Lavrov said of Zelenskyy.

Kyslytsya struck a bit of a middle ground. He praised the Trump administration’s work to get the two countries to the table and brushed aside some of Moscow’s fiery rhetoric. But he accused Russia of trying to manipulate the U.S. and said he sees “no signs there is a readiness on Putin’s side to have meaningful conversations.”

As far as a key question — the debate over territorial lines — Kyslytsya added that Ukraine’s “public is categorically against trading our land for peace,” and “when we spoke about territorial issues, I think President Zelenskyy made it very clear he’s ready to sit down with President Putin and discuss it, and the beginning of the conversations on the territorial issue is the contact line that is currently there.”

Vance sported the most optimistic tone of the three leaders.

Even as he conceded that negotiations can be a roller coaster, Vance praised both Russia and Ukraine for making significant concessions. He framed America’s role as one of a mediator, not trying to force one side to take terms they can’t stomach but one that tries to keep the door open to good-faith negotiating. And he framed the administration’s negotiating posture as persistent, willing to press on even if they hit a brick wall.

I hope you’ll join me Sunday morning on “Meet the Press” to watch more from our interviews with Vance and Lavrov.

More from the Vance interview: The VP confirmed the administration is “in the very early stages of an ongoing investigation” into former national security adviser John Bolton, whose house was searched this morning by the FBI. But Vance denied that the investigation was retribution for Bolton’s criticism of Trump. Read more →

✉️ Mailbag: Democrats’ redistricting disadvantage

Thanks to everyone who emailed us! This week’s question is on the national redistricting battle:

“My question is if all the red states and all the blue states follow the redistricting solution, which party comes out on top? Just how many seats would be up for grabs?”

Republicans have a clear advantage in the redistricting arms race simply because there are more states where they have full power. And in the vast majority of those states, lawmakers are in charge of drawing the maps, furthering the GOP’s edge.

In total, Republicans have a trifecta — meaning they control the governor’s office and the Legislature — in 23 states, compared to 15 for Democrats, according to Ballotpedia.

In 18 of the 23 GOP-led states, the state Legislature has at least some role, if not a leading one, in drafting congressional boundaries. And across those 18 states, there are 44 districts represented by Democrats for Republicans to theoretically go after. As for the other five states, Republicans already have full control of their congressional delegations. Three are small states with single at-large districts, and two have independent commissions that draw their lines.

Included in the group of 18 are the states Republicans are currently targeting in their mid-decade redistricting effort: Texas (13 Democratic-held seats), Florida (8), Indiana (2), and Missouri (2). Also included is Ohio (5), where lawmakers are required by law to draw new maps since the last version was passed without bipartisan support.