NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for East and West conference standings

The 2025-26 NBA season is slowly approaching and we’re still a long way from any serious postseason conversations. However, in a league known for its superstar shake-ups, surprise runs and playoff plunders, it’s clear that anything can happen from October to April.

Injuries will be a huge factor in the Eastern Conference, as recent front-running contenders such as the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers might slip in the standings due to the impact of their missing leaders.

In a competitive Western Conference, standings don’t seem as set in stone. Last season, the seeding for the playoffs wasn’t settled until the last day of the regular season. And this season, after some major moves, most notably Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets, expect to see another tense standings race.

Take a look at how our NBA experts predicted the win-loss records for all 30 teams in the league.

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Thursday with the predictions for conference and finals champions. On Tuesday, we revealed our picks for which players will win the league’s biggest awards, including MVP, DPOY and more.

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Eastern Conference | Western Conference

Eastern Conference

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Are the Knicks or Cavs under more pressure this season?

Kendrick Perkins breaks down the pressure on the Knicks and Cavaliers this season.

The contenders

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 59-23
2. New York Knicks: 54-28
3. Orlando Magic: 50-32
4. Atlanta Hawks: 47-35
5. Detroit Pistons: 47-35

The Cavaliers are returning 93% of the minutes from last season’s 64-win team, made two defensive offseason moves (adding Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr.) and saw two major conference rivals lose stars (Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton) to season-ending injuries.

Yet going into the season, the Cavs and All-Stars Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are only slight favorites at ESPN BET to win the East over the Knicks. The Cavs beat the Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns-led Knicks four times last season and won 13 more games. No doubt New York is formidable, having reached the conference finals and added some depth upgrades with Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele on bargain deals.

But when people refer to the East as “wide open” — a sentiment assuredly going to be heard throughout the next few months — it’s coded language for no confidence in the Cavs. It’s not unreasonable; they have underwhelmed in the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and their core remains largely the same, even if injuries played a role both times.

This is reflected in our projections; the Cavs sit at the top, but it’s more a matter of default than demand. In fact, generally, there is not much confidence in the relative strength of the East at all. Only three East teams are projected to win more than 47 games. This feels impossible, since last season there were five that finished above that mark, but especially because, inherently, the elite East teams will end up with the easiest schedules.

But the Cavs, Knicks and Magic all have flaws and fragility. There is a definite window for a team like Orlando, fresh off the aggressive move to add Desmond Bane, to gain on the top teams. The same could be said for the Hawks after their own aggressive move to pluck Kristaps Porzingis off the Celtics and add Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The panel sees both making a move in the East but not yet overtaking the top teams. — Brian Windhorst

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Why Udonis Haslem is excited to watch the Heat this year

Udonis Haslem is confident the Heat will bounce back with a successful season.

The play-in group

6. Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
7. Boston Celtics: 43-39
8. Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
9. Miami Heat: 39-43
10. Indiana Pacers: 39-43

If the landscape of the East has been altered entering this season, it’s largely due to the injuries and departures of stars. Three torn Achilles during last season’s playoffs have dramatically changed the trajectory for the Bucks, who parted with Damian Lillard after his torn Achilles in the first round; the Celtics, who dismantled their championship core after Tatum suffered the same injury in the second round; and the Pacers, whose bright future was put on hold when Haliburton tore his Achilles during the NBA Finals. It’s why those three teams, all recent winners of the conference, are projected to be in the middle of the pack, fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.

The Heat won the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. Philadelphia might be the most difficult team in the conference to project, considering the uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid’s health. The teams in this group all enter the season with major question marks that put them below the elite teams in this conference. — Jamal Collier

The bottom five

11. Chicago Bulls: 36-46
12. Toronto Raptors: 33-49
13. Charlotte Hornets: 26-56
14. Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
15. Washington Wizards: 20-62

After falling into the bottom of the East standings, these five cellar-dwelling teams can be sorted into three different groups.

First, it’s the team that has the potential to rise into the play-in group: the Raptors. Toronto didn’t trade Brandon Ingram last spring and instead gave him a nine-figure extension. Teams sitting in the luxury tax don’t expect to be projected to be at the bottom of the standings. If Toronto is eliminated from postseason contention, it’ll be a major disappointment.

Then, it’s two teams at a crossroads: the Bulls and the Hornets. Both have talented players who are approaching their primes (Josh Giddey and Coby White in Chicago, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Ingram in Charlotte); some long-term hopeful building blocks (Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue, Tidjane Salaun and Kon Knueppel) and rosters that could wind up fighting either for a play-in spot or for a spot near the top of the lottery.

And then there’s the Nets and Wizards, for whom there is no ambiguity. These two teams will be hoping to land in the top four of the 2026 NBA draft, which portends to have a stacked group of prospects. This season, they will be playing tons of young players, making trades for future assets and focusing on hopefully a different outcome in the lottery next May. — Tim Bontemps

Western Conference

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Why Lakers need to get off to hot start

Udonis Haslem breaks down why it’s critical for the Lakers to avoid a slow start in a stacked Western Conference.

The contenders

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
2. Houston Rockets: 54-28
3. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
5. LA Clippers: 50-32
6. Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32

Get used to hearing this: The Thunder are the clear-cut front-runner in the West. Fresh off becoming the youngest NBA title team in almost five decades, Oklahoma City has as much continuity as any defending champion ever has, as its entire extended rotation returns intact. Reigning scoring champion, MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is early in his prime, and supporting stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are ascending talents who just signed extensions of their rookie contracts. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Thunder flirt with the 70-win milestone again. The Rockets were a surprise last season, soaring to the West’s second seed before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. Houston addressed the glaring hole on its roster — a go-to guy — by trading for future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant without compromising hopes of having a long runway as a contender.

The Nuggets also addressed an obvious need by strengthening their bench, creating the financial flexibility to add depth by flipping Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, a potential upgrade at small forward. After pushing the Thunder to seven games in the West semifinals, Denver is determined to give three-time MVP Nikola Jokic a real chance to win another ring. The Lakers are arguably the most intriguing team in the West, as they make the transition into the Luka Doncic era with all-time leading scorer LeBron James still on the roster and very much in the spotlight. — Tim MacMahon

The play-in group

7. Golden State Warriors: 48-34
8. Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
9. San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
10. Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40

The West is so crowded with contenders that a couple of them will inevitably be bumped into this bracket, forced to play an extra game or two with their playoff hopes on the line. That’s particularly dangerous for older teams like the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely spend the final month of the season in a full-out standings sprint and won’t get the extra week of pre-playoff rest the top teams receive.

However, two teams still make it out of the play-in. The seventh-seeded Warriors beat the second-seeded Rockets in the first round last April. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green are healthy, the West’s top two seeds won’t be ecstatic to see the Warriors emerging from the seventh or eighth slot this spring. The same applies to the Mavericks if Kyrie Irving makes it back in time from his ACL tear. When the regular season ends, it will have been 13 months since his injury.

The other two teams in this bracket — the Spurs and Grizzlies — appear to be trending in different directions. San Antonio is stepping into the third season of its patient rebuild around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs won 22 and 34 games in his first two seasons. This season, our projections anticipate them taking a larger leap into the 40s. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, traded one of their core players this summer (Desmond Bane) for a draft pick package, a move that could signify the franchise is readying for a step back. — Anthony Slater

The bottom five

11. Portland Trail Blazers: 39-43
12. Sacramento Kings: 37-45
13. Phoenix Suns: 30-52
14. New Orleans Pelicans: 26-56
15. Utah Jazz: 19-63

The Blazers have a new owner on the way, Damian Lillard is back and Yang Hansen is an intriguing rookie for a team working toward contender status. Although head coach Chauncey Billups will have his team competing with new addition Jrue Holiday, the Blazers’ prospects seem brighter when looking beyond this season. The West has only gotten better, and Lillard is out for the season. Portland has young talent in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe and prospects to develop such as Donovan Clingan. But if the Blazers are to compete for a play-in or playoff spot, they will need Scoot Henderson to realize the potential that made him the third pick in 2023.

Sacramento will have a full season under new coach Doug Christie, who will try to get the best out of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan with Dennis Schroder at point guard. With Kevin Durant now with Houston and Bradley Beal with LA, Phoenix has begun its rebuild around Devin Booker and a ton of bigs. New Orleans added Jordan Poole and Jeremiah Fears and still has Zion Williamson. But can Williamson stay healthy? Rounding out the bottom five, Utah’s forever rebuild continues with new addition Ace Bailey, but the Jazz seem destined to end up in the West basement once again. — Ohm Youngmisuk