Cooper Flagg forecast – MVPs, NBA titles and his impact in Dallas

As arguably the most promising American prospect since LeBron James, the spotlight would have shined brightly on Cooper Flagg regardless of his draft destination.

Flagg landing on the Dallas Mavericks, following their unprecedented stroke of lottery luck in the wake of a season of shocking change, only adds to the intrigue.

It also puts Flagg in the rare position of being a No. 1 pick who could contribute to a winning team as a rookie.

“We’re in win-now mode, and so he adds to that, but he’s also the future of the franchise,” Mavs general manager Nico Harrison said at Flagg’s introductory news conference in July.

How much will the Mavs win in Flagg’s rookie season and beyond with the current core of aging future Hall of Famers? How soon before he’s an All-Star? Are MVP awards and championships in Flagg’s future?

Our panel — composed of ESPN writers, reporters, editors and analysts — forecasts that and more as Flagg prepares for his first NBA training camp.

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What Cooper Flagg brings to the Dallas Mavericks

Check out the best plays from Duke freshman Cooper Flagg as he is taken by the Dallas Mavericks with the No. 1 pick.

Flagg and the Mavericks will finish _______ in 2025-26

A trick trivia question: Who was the last No. 1 pick to play in the playoffs as a rookie?

It’s actually a tie: Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons did it together with the 2017-18 Philadelphia 76ers. “The Process” finally paid playoff dividends during Simmons’ redshirt rookie season, when the biggest factor in Philadelphia’s leap from 28 to 52 wins was Joel Embiid playing more than twice as many games as he did during his first three years in the NBA combined.

So, yes, a unique set of circumstances is required for a No. 1 pick to get such an early taste of playoff action. Well, Flagg plays for the Mavericks — a franchise, months removed from an NBA Finals run at the time, that dumped a perennial MVP contender entering his prime in a trade the GM proclaimed to be a win-now move, then limped into the lottery and cashed in 1.8% odds to land the top pick. That qualifies as unique.

Flagg is projected to be an instant starter, but he won’t be expected to carry the team as a rookie surrounded by accomplished veterans, most prominently former No. 1 pick and 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who was the headliner in the return package for Luka Doncic.

The biggest factor in the Mavs’ playoff positioning, or lack thereof, could be the impact made by another former No. 1 pick and future Hall of Famer. When will Kyrie Irving return from his torn left ACL? If it’s this season, can he return to All-Star form for a team that needs his offensive creation? — Tim MacMahon

Outside the postseason (No. 11-15): 3.8%
In the play-in (7-10): 73.1%
In the playoffs (5-6): 23.1%
Home court in the playoffs (4 or higher): 0%

How many series will Flagg, Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving win together in Dallas in his career?

Nearly two-thirds of our panelists believe Flagg and the Mavs will win two series or fewer with this current core involving him, Davis and Irving. On the flip side, about 15% of our panelists took the higher end of the estimate, saying Flagg and the core would win at least four playoff series.

Between Irving rehabbing the torn ACL he suffered in March and the fact that he and Davis are 33 and 32 years old, respectively, the smaller estimation would seem rooted in logic. From an age perspectrive, the veterans are likely to exit their physical prime in the near future.

The window for the Mavericks to win is now. But Irving figures to need time to round into form once he’s back. Similarly, Flagg, despite his talent and skill, is still a rookie — a stage at which even the most polished players tend to struggle some or hit an eventual first-season wall. Of course, things won’t be limited to this season alone. But the sooner the Mavs can land a series victory with this core — and the sooner they can enjoy good enough health to have all three of that group together on the court — the better it bodes for their chances of beating out the panel’s estimate. — Chris Herring

0: 7.7%
1: 30.8%
2: 26.9%
3: 19.2%
4: 3.8%
5: 7.7%
6 or more: 3.8%

Flagg will make his first All-Star appearance in _____

As our panel forecasts, it is exceedingly unlikely that Flagg will be selected as an All-Star as a rookie. Blake Griffin is the only rookie All-Star in the past two decades, and he had the benefit of a “redshirt” year in the NBA, as he sat out his first season because of left knee surgery. It’s also unclear what next year’s All-Star rosters will look like because of changing formats. If the league adopts a USA vs. World approach for the game, then Flagg could face even greater competition through the deep American player pool.

But second-year All-Stars are more common, with eight such players in the past eight years: Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. And a very large portion of star-level players reach that level by Year 3, so our panel is confident that Flagg will fit into that bucket, at the very least. — Zach Kram

2025-26: 3.8%
2026-27: 30.8%
2027-28: 57.7%
2028-29: 7.7%

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Mavs fall despite Cooper Flagg’s stellar 31-point performance

Cooper Flagg bounces back with a 31-point performance as the Mavericks fall to the Spurs 76-67.

How many MVP awards will Flagg win?

First off, let’s rip off the bandage of unlikelihood Flagg becomes the first American to break the current seven-year run of international-born players winning NBA MVP. Don’t count on it. American stars such as Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson are better positioned to pull off that feat.

That’s not to say that Flagg won’t win MVP eventually.

But it’s also worth noting that sources at NBA summer league pointed out a couple of minor deficiencies in Flagg’s game that he’ll need to iron out over his first couple of years in the league to rise to the level he’s projected to reach. After that, several factors — that are beyond his control — come into play, including overall team success, media narratives and how Flagg’s NBA peers are performing. Flagg possesses the background as the most promising American No. 1 pick since LeBron James and the all-around game that will draw the around-the-clock attention consideration from MVP voters.

His two-way ability and aesthetically pleasing game make him a contender to win multiple MVPs over a long career. But various outside factors muddle the potential picture. Let’s remember that former Mavericks franchise icon Luka Doncic is still seeking his first MVP over a career that we’ve expected to produce multiple. — Michael C. Wright

0: 34.6%
1: 46.2%
2: 15.4%
3: 0%
4 or more: 3.8%

How many NBA titles will Flagg win?

It’s not easy to win a title, even for a No. 1 pick. Flagg is the 41st No. 1 pick in the draft lottery era, and only 10 of the first 40 (25%) have won titles. That total might rise as younger No. 1 picks mature — the last No. 1 pick who won a title was Andrew Wiggins, drafted first in 2014 — but history suggests that the odds are against Flagg ever winning a championship. The only No. 1 picks in this era with more than one title are Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson.

But a couple of factors point in Flagg’s favor more than the average No. 1 pick. He enters the NBA with a better projection than most top prospects, which matters for postseason outcomes: Out of 15 No. 1 picks in the lottery era with multiple All-NBA appearances in their careers, seven (47%) have won titles, with the possibility for more if Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Edwards ever lifts the trophy.

The Mavericks also have much more talent than rebuilding squads that typically pick first in the draft. Most No. 1 picks need help from other No. 1 picks to win titles: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard all won while playing with James, for instance, and David Robinson and Glenn Robinson won next to Duncan.

That might be the most vital title-worthy context for Flagg as his career begins: He’ll soon share the court with Davis and Irving, two previous No. 1 picks who have turned that draft slot into a ring. — Kram

0: 7.7%
1: 76.9%
2: 7.7%
3: 7.7%
4 or more: 0%

How many teams will Flagg play for in his career?

Dirk Nowitzki shows there is precedent for a Mavericks star to remain in Dallas his entire career. The greatest player in franchise history spent 21 seasons in Dallas — the most for any player with a single team in NBA history. The Mavericks should be especially motivated to retain Flagg for as long as possible, given the fan base’s discontent following the trade of Doncic, who seemed to be Nowitzki’s natural successor.

Yet predicting any player in the modern NBA to remain with one team over his full career seems like a fool’s errand. Among players who have debuted in the 21st century, only four of the top 50 scorers have never changed teams: Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic. It’s still possible that a couple of those one-franchise players will still move before their careers end. Recent history overwhelmingly suggests that Flagg will move on at some point. — Kram

1 (Dallas): 3.8%
2: 53.8%
3: 34.6%
4 or more: 7.7%

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Cooper Flagg reacts to being drafted at No. 1

Cooper Flagg speaks to Monica McNutt after he’s drafted No. 1 in the 2025 NBA draft.

Where will Flagg land in 2025 NBA rank?

It’s rare to see a rookie even crack the Top 100, but Flagg enters the NBA capable of making a broad enough impact on games to earn a place. The question is less about whether he’ll warrant inclusion and more about how optimistic our ESPN panel will ultimately be about where to rank him.

Personally, I tend to air on the conservative side while estimating rookie-season impact. In the draft process, projecting a prospect’s eventual career peak is one thing, but the initial learning curve is a tricky variable and every player acclimates differently. Flagg is different than most prospects — he’s not only used to being young for his level but proved capably he’s ready for top competition at any age at Duke. Though I wouldn’t expect Dallas to burden him with a lot of creation duties, or for Flagg to be fully prepared to handle that immediately, his defensive instincts, passing and tenacity will all benefit him as he adjusts on a team that’s planning to be competitive.

Without thinking too hard about it, I would put Flagg in the 76-100 range. Our panel seems more optimistic at this stage. The fact we’re even having this conversation already speaks to his quality and bright future. — Jeremy Woo

Top 25: 0%
26-50: 15.4%
51-75: 53.8%
76-100: 30.8%