Pat Cummins’ Ashes preparation has been compromised after a scan revealed lumbar bone stress in his lower back which has ruled him out of the three white-ball series against New Zealand and India leaving the potential that he won’t play any cricket ahead of the England series which starts on November 21 in Perth.
Cummins, Australia’s Test and ODI captain, has not played since the Test tour of the Caribbean where his bowling workloads were significantly lower than usual. He missed the five T20Is against West Indies and both series against South Africa that followed which was a long-held plan to given him a 10-week physical build-up to the Test summer in a similar vein to last year.
But Cummins had experienced some back soreness post the Caribbean tour that lingered much longer than expected and a routine scan on his lower back on Monday showed the bone stress, otherwise known as a hot spot, which can be a precursor to a stress fracture. However, he has been cleared of any fracture in his lower spine.
Cummins was plagued by stress fractures across the first six years of his international career and did not play a Test match between his debut in 2011 and his second Test in India in 2017.
Since that time he has been incredibly durable with various minor issues, including an ankle injury and a hamstring issue, being managed without him missing large chunks of cricket.
This back issue will be a concern given his overall bowling loads have been much lower in 2025. He had bowled 400-plus overs in all cricket in each of the last three calendar years but has only bowled 175.1 overs through nine months of 2025, including just 95.1 across the four Tests recently in June and July against South Africa and West Indies. Even with a handful of ODIs and a possible planned Sheffield Shield game as well as the first four Ashes Test before the end of the year he was likely to fall well short of 400 overs this year.
“Cummins was rested from recent T20 series against the West Indies and South Africa. Despite this planned de-load period, Cummins has experienced some ongoing lower back pain following the West Indies Test tour,” a CA statement said.
“Further investigation has identified a level of lumbar bone stress that will require further management over the coming months. Cummins won’t be considered for the upcoming limited-overs series against India and will continue his rehabilitation plan with a return to bowling to be determined as part of his Ashes preparation.”
Cummins went into last summer deliberately underdone playing one 50-over match for New South Wales and two ODIs against Pakistan before the first Test against India, having not played any cricket since playing in the MLC in July 2024 post the T20 World Cup. He was rusty as a result in the first Test in Perth when Australia were hammered by India. But his freshness showed at the back end of the series as he was Player of the Match in the fourth Test in Melbourne and took five key wickets in the final Test in Sydney while India’s Jasprit Bumrah went down with a back injury following an unsustainable bowling load.
Cummins had articulated after the West Indies series in July this year that he planned to play in New Zealand and then against India in the ODIs, as well as potentially play a Sheffield Shield game at either the Gabba against Queensland starting on October 28 or at the SCG against Victoria starting on November 10, although that last game finishes just eight days before the first Ashes Test starts in Perth on November 21.
He now has just 11 weeks for the hot spot to settle and it would seem highly unlikely, although not impossible, that he could play any cricket before the Ashes starts. There is a One-Day domestic game between NSW and Queensland in Sydney on November 3 that could present a chance for some capped competitive overs if his back has settled in time, without being locked into a four-day Shield game.
The injury also presents a real possibility that Cummins will not be able to play and captain all five Tests in the Ashes. There are eight-day breaks following each of the first and second Tests but those breaks shorten to just four days after the third and fourth, putting major strain on the ability of fast bowlers on both sides to back up later in the series. Steve Smith will likely captain Australia if Cummins were to miss any of the Tests. Smith led Australia in the two Tests against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka earlier this year when Cummins missed due to an ankle issue and the birth of his second child. Smith also captained one Test in the last Ashes series in Australia in December 2021 when Cummins was ruled out of the second match in Adelaide due to the Covid-19 rules in place at the time. Smith has captained six times in Cummins’ absence since returning to the vice-captaincy in 2021, having led Australia 40 times in Tests overall. Travis Head is also formally a Test vice-captain but it would be unlikely he would be called upon to deputise for Cummins if Smith is in the XI.
On a bowling front, Australia have a ready-made replacement in Scott Boland but should another injury occur to either Josh Hazlewood or Mitchell Starc then the likes of Michael Neser and the uncapped pair of Brendan Doggett and Sean Abbott will come into the frame. Jhye Richardson is hopeful he can be fit by the time the Ashes starts but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and has only just started bowling again and won’t be able to throw properly. Lance Morris is out for the summer after opting to have back surgery following another stress fracture.
Hazlewood and Starc’s management will become critical in the lead into the Ashes. Starc’s retirement from T20I cricket means he will likely play the ODIs against India and at least one Shield game for New South Wales before the first Ashes Test, as he did last summer. Hazlewood will play the T20Is in New Zealand, but almost certainly won’t play all three in four days. He too will likely play some of the ODIs and at least one Shield game before Perth. Last summer he played one Shield game and one ODI but broke down with a side strain in Perth before returning for the third Test in Brisbane only to injure his calf and miss the rest of the summer.
CA will also be extra vigilant in managing allrounder Cameron Green ahead of the Ashes as he returns to bowling for the first time since back surgery last year. Green will not tour New Zealand and will instead play the first Shield round for Western Australia starting on October 4. It is likely he will play three Shield games and potentially only one ODI before the Ashes begins to build up his bowling loads.
Cummins’ back issue could also influence Australia’s selection in the Ashes. There had been a thought that Australia did not need the luxury of two allrounders in the same Ashes XI with Green’s return to bowling potential making the in-form Beau Webster surplus to requirements. But having two allrounders in the same XI could significantly aid Cummins’ chances of playing while managing his workloads given Australia could have five genuine seam options plus Nathan Lyon to spread the overs across.