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Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 3, which kicked off Thursday with the Dolphins at the Bills.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
ATL-CAR | GB-CLE | HOU-JAX | CIN-MIN | PIT-NE | LAR-PHI | NYJ-TB
IND-TEN | LV-WAS | DEN-LAC | NO-SEA | DAL-CHI | ARI-SF | KC-NYG | DET-BAL
Projected score: Packers 24, Browns 15
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy scoop: Quinshon Judkins made his pro debut in Week 2 and played more than expected. The second-round rookie soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 19 snaps. Game script allowed Jerome Ford to lead the Cleveland backfield in snaps (35) for the second week in a row, but he was limited to six carries to go along with his six targets. Dylan Sampson crashed back to earth after a strong Week 1, totaling four carries and three targets on 17 snaps. Judkins played well (71 yards), and his role only figures to increase, although Ford appears to be a real threat for passing down work, with Sampson also likely to chip in here or there. Judkins might work his way into the RB2 mix at some point soon, but he’s safest as a fringe flex this week against a Packers defense that has held opposing backs to 2.4 yards per carry (second lowest) so far this season.
Over/under: 38.7 (Lowest)
Win probability: Packers 81% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Colts 24, Titans 19
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: Michael Pittman Jr. is a candidate to draw shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed shadowed Courtland Sutton when he was on the field in Week 1, then full-time shadowed Davante Adams on his perimeter routes in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, but a healthy Sneed is one of the game’s top cover corners, so this matchup is not to be completely disregarded. Pittman doesn’t draw shadows as often as some No. 1 receivers, although Pat Surtain II did travel with him at times in Week 2, which helps explain his 4-40-0 receiving line. Pittman is already a fringe flex option, so he’s safest left on your bench in Week 3.
Over/under: 42.6 (12th highest)
Win probability: Colts 69% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Vikings 21, Bengals 20
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow is out for three-plus months, which means Jake Browning will take over as Bengals quarterback. Browning played a majority of the snaps in seven games in place of Burrow in 2023. Browning averaged 19.1 fantasy PPG those weeks, which was fourth best among QBs during the span. The Bengals were very pass-heavy with Burrow under center in 2023 (12% pass rate over expected) and, while still pass-first, they were more balanced with Browning (+4%). He totaled 14 TDs and 7 INTs in those seven games and adds just enough with his legs to place him in the QB2 mix going forward. Chase was limited to a 29-383-1 receiving line in six games with Browning (12.2 FF PPG) in 2023, but that was prior to his big 2024 breakout and he was very productive with Browning under center last week (14-165-1). Tee Higgins produced 15-328-3 in five games (13.2 PPG) with Browning in 2023 and is now more of a WR3/flex. Browning is obviously a downgrade from Burrow, but he averaged 267 passing yards per game in 2023 and threw at least one TD pass in all seven of those games. Brown and Chase remain lineup locks.
Fantasy scoop: Minnesota will be without J.J. McCarthy and Aaron Jones this week. McCarthy’s absence shouldn’t affect the passing game much, as, at this point his young career, he might not be much better than replacement Carson Wentz (McCarthy totaled 301 yards, two TDs and three INTs during Weeks 1-2). Jefferson and Hockenson can remain in lineups. Jones’ injury means Mason should be in lineups. The 26-year-old has minimal competition for snaps (Zavier Scott is next up on the depth chart), is a terrific rusher (career 5.2 YPC ranks third and 2.5 YAC ranks first among RBs with 200-plus carries since he entered the league) and was actually used a bit as a receiver last week (career-high 14% target share). Mason will be very busy against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points and a league-high three TDs to opposing RBs.
Over/under: 41.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 54% (14th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 22, Patriots 22
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf
Fantasy scoop: It was expected that second-round rookie TreVeyon Henderson was going to take lead back duties from Rhamondre Stevenson in New England this season. That hasn’t happened … at least not yet. After out-snapping Henderson 45-23 in Week 1, Stevenson held a 36-16 edge last week. In addition to dominating the snaps, Stevenson holds an 18-8 edge in carries, 9-8 edge in targets and 33-26 edge in routes. Henderson has played well when called on (4.6 YPC, and he caught all eight of his targets for 54 yards) and his role only figures to grow, but at least for now, he should be relegated to the fantasy bench. Stevenson (169 yards on 25 touches this season) is seeing just enough work to place him in the flex discussion against a Steelers defense that allowed 16-plus fantasy points to both Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.
Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 51% (Lowest)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Rams 23
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown
Fantasy scoop: Eagles wide receivers are off to a very slow start, but don’t panic just yet. As noted last week, Brown and DeVonta Smith were slowed by Dallas’ extremely zone-heavy scheme in the opener. The team made an effort to get them going in Week 2, and while Brown was held to an ugly 27 yards, he was peppered with nine targets (41% share). Smith was slightly better, totaling 53 yards on six targets. Pass volume has been down (45 total pass attempts) and all five of the offensive TDs have come on the ground (compared to 58% in 2024). Both receivers remain featured pieces of a good Eagles offense. Brown is still a lineup lock and Smith is best viewed as a fringe WR3.
Shadow Report: Adams can expect to see shadow coverage from Quinyon Mitchell. Philly’s top corner traveled with George Pickens in Week 1 and, though it wasn’t the entire game, he shadowed Hollywood Brown on six of his first seven perimeter routes last week. Why Adams and not Nacua? Similar to CeeDee Lamb, Nacua spends a lot of time in the slot, whereas Pickens and Adams primarily align out wide. Mitchell, one of the game’s top young corners, will see a ton of Adams, whereas Nacua will work often against Cooper DeJean in the slot. The Rams’ top two receivers will still be extremely busy (they both have a 33% target share this season), so even in what might be a harder matchup than usual, they remain top fantasy options.
Over/under: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 63% (8th highest)
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Breece Hall, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, Emeka Egbuka
Shadow Report: Evans is a candidate for shadow coverage courtesy of Sauce Gardner. Gardner did not shadow against Buffalo’s wide receiver rotation last week, but did the last time he faced a clear No. 1 perimeter target: DK Metcalf in Week 1. Gardner was on Metcalf on all 29 of his perimeter routes, holding Pittsburgh’s top receiver to 12.3 fantasy points. Shadowed in both Week 1 (A.J. Terrell Jr.) and Week 2 (Derek Stingley Jr.), Evans is off to a slow start, totaling a 10-107-0 receiving line on 19 targets. Gardner presents a tough matchup, though Evans’ 29% target share is enough to keep him squarely in the WR2 mix.
Over/under: 46.1 (7th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 76% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Commanders 27, Raiders 19
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Austin Ekeler is out for the season, which opens the door for Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez to handle the Washington backfield. Croskey-Merritt (34 snaps, 14 carries, 15 routes, 2 targets this season) is the top bet to lead the unit in snaps and carries moving forward. However, McNichols (26 snaps, four carries, 10 routes, zero targets) is likely to take on a sizable chunk of Ekeler’s passing down role, and Rodriguez (inactive in Weeks 1-2) is a capable short-yardage/goal line option. The Raiders have locked down RBs pretty well (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed), so while Croskey-Merritt is the top fantasy option of the unit, he’s best left on benches in Week 3.
Shadow Report: The Raiders have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, which is hardly a surprise considering their shaky cornerbacks room. That’s good news for McLaurin, Samuel and rookie Jaylin Lane, who will face off with Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes this week. Upgrade the Washington WR room.
Over/under: 46.4 (6th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 75% (4th highest)
Projected score: Falcons 24, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Is Year 5 the charm for Kyle Pitts? The fantasy results haven’t been spectacular (7-59-0 and 4-37-0 receiving lines), but the 24-year-old has a career-high 21% target share through two games. He’s been on the field for 78% of Atlanta’s snaps and has run a route on 82% of the team’s pass plays, both of which are also career-high marks. Pitts’ usage is enough to put him in the fringe TE1 mix, especially against a Carolina defense that has allowed a league-high 188 yards to tight ends through two games.
Shadow Report: McMillan is a good bet to draw shadow coverage from Terrell this week, assuming of course that he is able to play. Terrell, who left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, shadowed Mike Evans in Week 1 and has a history of traveling with most clear No. 1 perimeter receivers. That’s the case for McMillan, who has aligned out wide on 84% of his routes and leads Carolina with 19 targets (22% share). Terrell did a nice job on Evans in Week 1, but especially considering his injury, there’s minimal reason for concern here. McMillan is a fringe WR2.
Over/under: 44.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 62% (9th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 22, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Brian Thomas Jr., Nico Collins
Fantasy scoop: Nick Chubb has settled in as Houston’s clear lead back, and that was further confirmed by Dameon Pierce being a healthy scratch on Monday night. Chubb handled 12 carries and a pair of targets on 24 snaps, which allowed him to gain 72 yards and one TD. Chubb was, however, limited to 52% of the snaps (he played 49% in Week 1), deferring the other 48% to Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale. Chubb is running the ball fairly well, but he remains in a timeshare and without much of a role as a receiver. He’s a flex option against the Jaguars. Marks (three carries and one target in Week 2) should see an expanded role as the season progresses, especially as a receiver, so he’s not the worst end-of-bench stash.
Shadow Report: Thomas is a good bet to see Derek Stingley Jr. shadow coverage this week. Houston’s top corner traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 and Mike Evans in Week 2, aligning against them on a combined 44 of their 49 perimeter routes. Adams managed 7.2 fantasy points and Evans was limited to 10.6. Thomas and Stingley faced off in Week 13 last season, and though Thomas had a decent fantasy day (87 scrimmage yards and one TD on five touches), he caught just two of seven targets when covered by Stingley. Thomas posted a 5-76-1 receiving line in the Week 4 meeting, though he wasn’t shadowed in that game. Thomas is off to a very slow start to 2025 (69 yards and a rushing TD on six touches), but his target share remains strong (27%). Even in a tough matchup, he should be in lineups as a fringe WR1.
Over/under: 41.1 (14th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Chargers 23, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Ladd McConkey, Courtland Sutton, Keenan Allen
Fantasy scoop: Troy Franklin was quiet as a situational player throughout his rookie season and even in Week 1, but perhaps we saw the start of a breakout season on Sunday. The 2024 fourth-round pick played 85% of the snaps, was targeted nine times (30% share) and totaled 100 yards and one TD on nine touches. Franklin’s big game and Denver’s wide-open No. 2 WR slot are enough to make Franklin worthy of a waiver add, though it’s worth noting that he played only 58% of the snaps in Week 1. A return to irrelevance is possible, especially with Sutton, Marvin Mims, Pat Bryant and, perhaps someday, Evan Engram in the mix, but it’s also possible the second-year receiver goes down as one of the surprise breakouts of 2025. He’s a deep league flex against the Chargers.
Shadow Report: I wouldn’t call it a lock, but Quentin Johnston could draw Pat Surtain II shadow coverage this week. Surtain tends to shadow clear No. 1 perimeter targets, as he did full time against Calvin Ridley in Week 1 and part time against Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 2. Johnston might not be Los Angeles’ top target, but with McConkey and Allen in the slot so often, Johnston (81% perimeter), who has three TDs in two games, might get the Surtain treatment. We’ve seen that in the past, with Surtain shadowing Mike Williams over Allen (2022) and Joshua Palmer over McConkey (2024). Granted, Allen, Williams and Palmer were sidelined, but Surtain did shadow Johnston full time in Week 17 back in 2023, and Johnston totaled 29 yards on five targets in the game. Johnston’s strong play and Los Angeles’ pass-heavy offense are enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion, but the bust risk is higher than usual this week.
Over/under: 45 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 57% (12th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Saints 17
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Week 2 gave us little additional clarity on the Seattle backfield. Zach Charbonnet remained the “1A” back and now holds an edge over Ken Walker III in snaps (64 to 43), carries (27 to 23) and routes (22 to 16), with Walker leading in targets (four to zero). Charbonnet’s lead back role hasn’t led to production, as he has totaled 57 yards and one TD on 27 carries (2.1 YPC) and has yet to see a target. Walker struggled in Week 1 but exploded for 118 yards and one TD on 14 touches in Week 2. The production very well could lead to a larger role moving forward, but keep in mind that his share of the snaps, routes and targets were all lower in Week 2 than they were in Week 1. For now, this remains a situation best avoided, but Walker’s strong showing is enough to make him the preferred RB2/flex of the two.
Shadow Report: With two weeks in the books, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the second fewest to the perimeter. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and the rest of the New Orleans wide receiver room should be downgraded against Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon (if he returns from injury) and Josh Jobe.
Over/under: 39.3 (15th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 70% (5th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 26, Bears 26
Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Rome Odunze, George Pickens, DJ Moore, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Both quarterbacks in this game should be considered strong starting options, if not full-on lineup locks. Both defenses are off to horrific starts, with Dallas allowing 30.3 fantasy points to Russell Wilson and 24.3 points to Jalen Hurts, and Chicago surrendering 22.2 points to J.J. McCarthy and 34.0 points to Jared Goff. Williams sits 10th among QBs in fantasy points and fourth in rushing yards. The good matchup vaults him up the Week 3 rankings. Dak Prescott is fresh off a 361-yard effort against the Giants and is a back-end QB1 this week.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Chicago’s receivers against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the most to the perimeter. Odunze and Moore will see plenty of Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam on the boundary, with Olamide Zaccheaus facing off with DaRon Bland or, if Bland remains out, Reddy Steward in the slot. With Bland out last week, Giants slot man Wan’Dale Robinson went for 142 yards and a score on 10 targets, so Zaccheaus will be a deep sleeper if Bland remains sidelined.
Shadow Report: Chicago’s top corner, Jaylon Johnson, is out for the season and slot man Kyler Gordon missed both Weeks 1-2 with a hamstring injury. Chicago’s man-heavy defense has, in turn, allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. This week, Lamb and Pickens stand to benefit against Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright (Johnson’s replacement) and either Gordon or Nick McCloud. Upgrade the Dallas receivers.
Over/under: 52 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Harrison is coming off a rough Week 2 outing in which he was limited to 27 yards on five targets. This, of course, comes after he posted a 5-71-1 receiving line on six targets in Week 1. Harrison’s 21% target share isn’t going to cut it for a player expected to be an elite offensive player, but the good news is that he’s been on the field for 90% of Arizona’s pass plays and overall pass volume will increase. The Cardinals haven’t had to throw much, as they’ve led on 70% of their offensive snaps (third highest), but, once adjusted for game script, they have the league’s fourth-pass-heaviest offense. Harrison needs to be better to justify “lineup lock” status, but he is worthy of WR3 status against the 49ers.
Over/under: 47 (5th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 62% (10th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 25, Giants 21
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Malik Nabers, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: After Tyrone Tracy Jr. dominated the Giants’ backfield in Week 1, it was Cam Skattebo who took control last week. The rookie soaked up 11 carries and three targets on 33 snaps (18 routes), compared to five carries and five targets on 27 snaps (17 routes) for Tracy and one carry and one target on four snaps (one route) for Devin Singletary. A hot-hand approach seems to be the game plan for New York, which means neither back can be trusted this week against the Chiefs.
Over/under: 45.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 64% (7th highest)
Projected score: Ravens 29, Lions 26
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews has fallen off the fantasy radar. Once a superstar, Andrews has managed just 7 yards on four targets through two games. And that’s despite having played 78% of the snaps and with Isaiah Likely out of the lineup. Andrews figures to hit for the occasional touchdown (he had 11 in 2024), but his dwindling target share has made him unusable in fantasy. He should be buried on your bench for the time being.
Over/under: 54.6 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 59% (11th highest)