How Trump is shaping the midterm map: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we take a look at how President Donald Trump is steering GOP lawmakers away from statewide bids with an eye on protecting the House majority. Plus, Andrea Mitchell breaks down the latest chapter in the Trump administration’s attempts to shift attention away from the Epstein files.

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— Adam Wollner

How Trump is shaping the midterm map

A trio of Republican members of Congress have in recent days declined to seek a higher office, developments that could not only help their party avoid messy statewide primaries, but shore up battleground districts as they aim to protect their fragile House majority in 2026.

And in all three cases, President Donald Trump played a key role.

New York: After toying with a gubernatorial bid for months, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler announced today he would not challenge New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and instead run for re-election.

The decision comes as a relief to Republicans, who feared Lawler’s Hudson Valley district — one of three they represent that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 election — would be even more at risk without an incumbent on the ballot. Trump and GOP leaders had been trying to steer Lawler away from the governor’s race, with the president even endorsing him for re-election in May before he made up his mind.

Lawler said on “Meet the Press NOW“ that he met with Trump, who “offered his perspective that he believes the right thing to do is to run for re-election.”

“But ultimately it was my decision,” Lawler added.

Lawler’s move could also clear the way for Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump ally who has been weighing a gubernatorial run after her nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was pulled earlier this year. Stefanik said today she’d announce her plans after this fall’s elections.

Michigan: Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga also announced today he would not run for the Senate, averting a primary clash with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the swing state.

Huizenga said he made the decision “in consultation with President Trump.” But notably, he did not say whether he’d run for another term in his southwest Michigan district, which the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as “likely Republican.”

Still, the announcement is welcome news for Rogers and the Senate GOP leaders who are supporting him as he seeks the seat Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is vacating. Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race, although he is expected to back Rogers soon, two Republican sources told NBC News.

Iowa: Earlier this month, GOP Rep. Zach Nunn passed on a bid for Iowa governor after speaking with Trump. Nunn, whom Trump praised as a “team player,” is instead running again in his southwest Iowa district, which he won by 4 points last year and is expected to be among Democrats’ top targets next year.

Gov. Kim Reynolds’ decision to not seek re-election could lead to a crowded Republican field. One of Nunn’s colleagues, Rep. Randy Feenstra, who represents a safer district, is exploring a bid.

Looking ahead: Plenty of challenges still await Republican leaders and Trump, who has been steadily rolling out endorsements throughout the year, as the midterm map takes shape. Heading into the summer congressional recess, they will work to ensure that incumbents in key states and districts run for re-election. And they are still searching for candidates in critical Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina.

North Carolina: Speaking of the Tar Heel State, Democrats are poised to score a prized recruit for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is set to enter the race, according to two sources familiar with his plans.

The latest chapter in Trump’s distraction strategy

President Donald Trump and his Cabinet have been busy this week declassifying reports and levying a flurry of controversial accusations.

The timing has aroused suspicions of a larger strategy. Case in point: Today’s appearance by the head of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, in the White House briefing room to amplify Trump’s unfounded accusation that former President Obama committed “treason” to rig the elections in 2016 and 2020.

Treason is defined as attempting to overthrow the government by waging war against the state, or materially aiding its enemies. Trump is basing his charge on a widely discredited 2020 Republican House intelligence report that excluded Democratic committee members, differing from an earlier, bipartisan and unanimous Senate report led by then-Intelligence Committee Chairman Marco Rubio — now, of course, Trump’s secretary of state and national security adviser.

Still, Gabbard has referred Obama for possible criminal prosecution, creating headlines despite no indication of an error in the intelligence assessments or wrongdoing. Even if there were, Obama would likely have immunity based on last year’s Supreme Court’s decision that presidents cannot be prosecuted for offenses while in office. Plus, Trump’s own special prosecutor found no reason to file charges after a three-year investigation.

Also striking was the sudden release of secret files on Martin Luther King Jr. The files had been under a court-ordered seal since 1977, but Trump signed an order in January to take steps to make them public. On Monday, thousands of pages were released with no advance notice — while King’s family was still reading them, hoping to redact unsubstantiated claims about MLK’s personal life. Critics said the White House was resurrecting old conspiracy theories to distract from the furor over Trump’s failure to release the Epstein files.

Adding to the cacophony was the president’s social media exhumation of a settled dispute over the name of Washington’s NFL team. Known for almost a century as the “Redskins,” in 2022 the team was renamed the “Commanders” to satisfy many Native American tribes.

But now Trump is threatening to block the team’s return to Washington from the suburbs if it doesn’t reclaim its old name. That would be a nonstarter with local officials who have to approve the team’s move — and hardly a distraction to diehard D.C. football fans.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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