John Cornyn appeals to Trump as he faces primary headwinds
President Donald Trump has a Texas-sized conundrum on his hands as Republicans prepare for a Senate primary in the state, with GOP Sen. John Cornyn making his case for the White House to get involved as he tries to fend off a challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
But, so far, Trump is staying on the sidelines.
“I’ve talked to him about it a number of times. He is not ready to make that endorsement,” Cornyn told NBC News on Tuesday. “I think as we start advertising and closing the gap in the polls, hopefully he’ll see fit to make that endorsement, but we can’t wait.”
“I pointed out to him, and he knows this, that if he endorsed me, the race would be over,” Cornyn later added.
But Cornyn is struggling in recent primary polling, as Paxton has pitched himself as the true exemplar of the party’s MAGA wing. Some Republicans are concerned that Paxton — a conservative firebrand with no shortage of personal controversies, including some that led to an impeachment push by a number of fellow Republicans in 2023 — could be a problematic general election candidate who would force national Republicans to spend millions to defend the longtime red seat.
Those concerns won’t let up with the latest round of fundraising figures, released Tuesday night. Paxton lapped the senator in direct fundraising to their campaigns, though Cornyn’s entire political operation raised a significant sum.
The race came up at a White House meeting last week between Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, staffers with the Thune-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, and other former Trump campaign staffers. A source with knowledge of the meeting said the group agreed that Cornyn and allies need to focus over the summer on improving the incumbent’s poll numbers. Thune told NBC News that the meeting “covered a whole range of races around the country” but declined to go into detail.
Paxton’s team has also been in touch with the White House political team and sharing polling data, according to a source close to his campaign.
In public surveys, the University of Texas at Tyler found Paxton leading Cornyn by a margin of 44%-34%, while Texas Southern University found Paxton leading 43%-34%. Both polls found about a quarter of voters undecided. Other private polls by outside groups with skin in the game have shown Paxton with an even larger lead.
This is far from the first time Cornyn, a 40-year veteran of elected politics in the state, has faced issues on his right flank. His most recent challenge came in 2014, when he won 59% of the GOP primary vote.
But it may be the most serious danger of his Senate career. Cornyn finds himself not only in a changed national party remade by Trump but in the middle of a civil war in his state between the establishment and the conservative forces that fueled the rise of Sen. Ted Cruz and other tea party Republicans, led to turmoil in the state legislature and contributed to the impeachment push against and subsequent acquittal of Paxton.
“We’re in the day and age of: The Republican Party is Trump’s party. And Paxton has done a very good job of being very outfront, being very vocal, being a strong defender of Trump, which voters — that’s the lens that they look through and evaluate candidates by,” said Matt Langston, a Republican strategist in the state who is not involved in the race.
Primary picks up
Paxton was quick to question Cornyn’s Trump connections and his conservative chops when he launched his campaign.
In 2023, Cornyn responded to the allegations that Trump mishandled classified documents by telling a local news reporter that “he’s created a circumstance for himself which is, I think, very serious.” That same year, Cornyn responded to the civil verdict finding Trump liable for sexual abuse by saying “I do not think he could win the presidency” because “electability is … the sole criterion.”
Cornyn’s opponents have also criticized his past votes on some gun control and immigration bills.
It’s why Cornyn has spent the months portraying himself as a staunch supporter of Trump. In March, he posted a photo of him reading Trump’s book on social media. His pinned image on X is a photo of him with Trump. And his campaign regularly touts his record of voting for Trump’s priorities in the Senate. Cornyn co-chaired a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing last month delving into questions about former President Joe Biden’s fitness for office.
“I think we need to remind people of my support for President Trump and his agenda, which is about a 99.2% voting record with his first term and now in his second term,” Cornyn told NBC News, referencing a memo from his Senate office that detailed more than 600 of Cornyn’s votes since 2017. That memo also touted Cornyn’s work to support Trump’s Supreme Court and other judicial nominees, the 2017 tax cuts and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
On Wednesday, a pro-Cornyn super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, launched a television ad campaign across the state, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
“Meet the man who votes with President Trump over 99% of the time,” a narrator says in the group’s first TV ad, which also features footage of Trump praising Cornyn at a rally.
Chris LaCivita, a former top Trump campaign official, is working with the super PAC as its senior adviser, according to three people familiar with Cornyn’s campaign. Tony Fabrizio, a top Trump pollster, is working directly with Cornyn’s campaign.
Paxton’s vulnerabilities
While Paxton has been trying to lob bombs at Cornyn from his right flank, Cornyn and his team are ready to exploit the attorney general’s multiple controversies.
“The baggage that my opponent would bring into the election would make it likely that we would lose that seat to a Democrat if he were the nominee. So I’m not going to let that happen,” Cornyn said.
Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 and eventually reached a deal to avoid a trial. But related allegations — plus accusations including bribery and misuse of his office — led the GOP-controlled state House to impeach him in 2023, though the state Senate acquitted him.
Prosecuting Paxton on ethical grounds will be a centerpiece of Cornyn’s campaign. He blasted Paxton’s bid as a “con man’s vanity project” and launched a “Crooked Ken” website detailing the impeachment and allegations of adultery that stemmed from that investigation.
Paxton’s pending divorce from wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, brought those allegations back into the spotlight. Angela Paxton posted on X last week that she “filed for divorce on biblical grounds…in light of recent discoveries.”
The day of Paxton’s divorce announcement was his campaign’s second-largest small-dollar fundraising day since his launch, according to a person close to the Paxton campaign.
But Paxton’s allies see those controversies as fueling his reputation as a fighter among grassroots Republicans.
“Ken has a strong 40, 45% of MAGA voters that won’t leave him,” said Paxton adviser Nick Maddux. “They’ve seen him fight, they’ve seen him in the trials and they like what he’s done. And Cornyn’s never done that. He doesn’t have a hard base of support.”
Paxton’s campaign also raised $2.9 million from April through June, ending the quarter with $2.5 million in its campaign account. Cornyn’s campaign raised $804,000 and ended the quarter with $5.9 million on hand, while his joint fundraising committee raised $3.1 million and had $2.7 million on hand.
The Cornyn campaign’s haul marked its second-worst quarter over the senator’s past two election cycles on the ballot (2020 and 2014). But the campaign dismissed any concerns about his fundraising.
“Senator Cornyn is a very strong fundraiser, always has been and will continue to be,” said Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiack, who said focusing on the joint fundraising committee was a “strategic” move to be able to access lower television ad rates.
A growing field?
While Cornyn and Paxton battle, it is possible the primary field could grow.
Rep. Wesley Hunt told NBC News late last month he still hasn’t made a decision about whether to run for Senate, but the two-term Republican notes he hasn’t seen a poll showing Cornyn can beat Paxton in a primary.
Asked if that’s a concern in Texas, he told NBC News: “It should be.”
Hunt’s House campaign committee recently launched a cable ad buy that reaches beyond his Houston-area district, into the Dallas and San Antonio media markets, according AdImpact. Hunt also shared a minute-long spot that features Trump praising him, and a pro-Hunt outside group, Standing for Texas, has also spent more than $2 million so far on ads boosting him around the state.
GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson also told NBC News this week that he has not ruled out running for Senate and he is going to “keep my powder dry right now.”
“A lot of people think Ken Paxton might have trouble in the general,” Jackson said, noting there are concerns among Republicans that a competitive Texas race would pull resources from other battleground states.
That concern is partly why Senate Republican leaders, including Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, are backing Cornyn.
“We need an electable candidate that can win not just a primary, but a general, and we believe there’s a path there for Cornyn to win both,” Thune recently told NBC News.
Democrats have long sought to turn Texas blue, but they have not been able to build on a narrow loss to Cruz in 2018. Trump won Texas by 8 percentage points last year, while Cruz defeated former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred nearly 9 points. Allred recently launched another run for Senate.
Langston, the GOP strategist, didn’t buy the argument that Paxton would put the seat at risk if he is the nominee, given the state’s red hue.
“You would have to have almost 100% of registered Democrats coming out to vote, plus a good 10 or 12% of Republicans crossing over,” he said. “It’s just never going to happen.”