Alarmiung new data as security disaster looks.
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So, this is alarming and new. It turns out the “looming security disaster” for Windows users may be even worse than we feared. Microsoft is pushing continuous update warnings, and a billion Windows users may be at risk.
This is all about Windows 10 which came crashing down to its end-of-life last month, with hundreds of millions of users still on board. Microsoft has given all those users an extended security update lifeline, but warns it’s nowhere close to Windows 11 and all those users should upgrade their OS — or if that’s not possible, their PC.
We had assumed around 550 million PCs are still running Windows 10, out of the 1.4 billion market total. And we had also assumed around half of those were older PCs, ineligible for a Windows 11 upgrade without some form of workaround.
But now Dell, (via Windows Latest) has issued a stark correction. “The installed base is roughly 1.5 billion units,” Dell COO Jeffrey Clarke told an earnings call. “We have about 500 million of them capable of running Windows 11 that haven’t been upgraded. And we have another 500 million that are four years old that can’t run Windows 11.”
If correct, that’s twice the number we thought, and makes Windows 11’s momentum look even worse. “Microsoft’s strategy to push Windows 11 is clearly not working out,” Windows Latest says, either because “the OS doesn’t have a good reputation” or because consumers ”just don’t want to dump” healthy Windows 10 PCs.
Whatever the reality, Dell likely has a sharper view than market analysts such as StatCounter, which estimate the install base using small representative samples. It’s clear that a vast number of PCs are still using a now retired OS, ESU or not.
Meanwhile, Microsoft will continue to issue its nags and warnings. Windows 11 PCs, it says, combines “the latest security updates and hardware-backed protection” to deliver “a reported 62% drop in security incidents.” This, it says, is “secure by design, secure by default,” with “layers of protection built-in and enabled out of the box.”
The Oct. 14 deadline has now passed, but there’s a new one. Same date just a year further down the line. October 2026 will be a real crunch point with another ESU looking unlikely. As such, holiday shopping seasons — like the one we’re now in — become critical for OEMs, retailers and users.
