New research reveals national shift toward Republican Party
FIRST ON FOX: Republicans outperformed Democrats on voter registration in four key battleground states between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, according to research by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC).
The bipartisan political consultant non-profit teamed up with analysts from Data Trust, a conservative organization, and Target Smart, which has aligned with Democrats in past election cycles. Compiling data from the 2020 and 2024 elections in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the research suggests a national shift in voter registration toward the Republican Party.
“We wanted a bipartisan analysis because there are so many conventional wisdoms this election challenged,” Larry Huynh of Trilogy Interactive and Democrat AAPC Board President said. “The data was pretty clear that the Democrats were caught off guard with voter registration and turnout efforts and failed to mount a sufficiently compelling counter-effort to compete. We should all learn from this and take a deeper dive into our voter registration and turnout operations.”
AAPC unveiled the research this week during the 2025 Pollie Awards, a political communications awards program, in Colorado Springs, Colo.
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Yard signs are offered to supporters as they arrive for a campaign event with Republican vice presidential nominee U.S. Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) on Sept.25, 2024, in Traverse City, Michigan. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
“The Trump campaign and the Republican Party deserve considerable recognition for their voter registration success and turnout efforts and the party should try to build on these successes,” Kyle Roberts of AdImpact and the incoming Republican AAPC Board President told Fox News Digital.
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From 2020 to 2024, the bipartisan political analysis found the share of registered Democrat voters dropped in all four battleground states. Meanwhile, the share of registered unaffiliated and Republican voters increased in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to the data compiled by Data Trust and Target Smart.
In three out of four of the states analyzed, unaffiliated voters accounted for the largest electoral increase. Democrats saw the largest electoral drop between 2020 and 2024 across the four battleground states, following the same trend as voter registration.
Voter turnout across party lines dropped in three out of the four battleground states analyzed, the data revealed. And while Democrat turnout dropped more than Republican turnout in those three states, the difference was less than a percentage point in every state but Arizona.
Data Trust and Target Smart also analyzed trends across demographic groups, including Black, Hispanic and rural voters. The overall increase in Republican registration, turnout and electoral growth was consistent across the demographic groups analyzed.
Former President Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Bozeman, Montana, on Friday, Aug. 9. (AP/Rick Bowmer)
President Donald Trump won all seven battleground states in 2024 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans maintained control of the House of Representatives and won back the Senate.
70% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track and wanted change in the 2024 presidential election, according to Fox News Voter Analysis. The economy and immigration were top issues as Trump tied inflation to President Joe Biden’s administration and vowed to secure the border on his first day in office.
As AAPC seeks to analyze Republicans’ inroads with swing state voters in 2024, Democrats are facing their own reckoning this week as a new book reveals the alleged “cover-up” of Biden’s cognitive decline.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris laugh as they view the fireworks on the National Mall from the White House balcony during a 4th of July event on the South Lawn of the White House on Jul. 4, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)
CNN anchor Jake Tapper and Axios political correspondent Alex Thompson’s book, “Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again,” released on Tuesday, paints an unflattering picture of Democrats’ losses in 2024.
While political commentators focus on what Democrats did wrong in 2024, AAPC’s new data reveals what Republicans did right on voter registration and turnout.
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The Republican National Committee (RNC) opened “Black Americans for Trump” and “Latino Americans for Trump” offices across the battleground states in 2024, seeking to expand their reach among traditionally Democrat voting blocs.
Over 160,000 volunteers joined the RNC’s “Protect the Vote” efforts on election integrity in 2024, which included more than 100 lawsuits and recruiting poll watchers across the country. Seizing on Republicans’ election distrust following Trump’s loss in 2020, the RNC built a coalition of supporters across the country that propelled voters to the polls and landed Trump a win in 2024.