Ranking NFL’s most likely worst-to-first teams for 2025 season

Of the four major American sports leagues, the NFL is generally celebrated for having the most turnover among the successful teams. Because of this phenomenon, every fan can go into the season with some hope that their team can win it all. That’s even true for the teams in last place a year ago.

Since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, 25 teams have gone from worst to first in their division in a single season. There were no such teams in 2024, but the 2023 Texans are a recent example. They improved from a 3-13-1 record in 2022 to 10-7 and an AFC South title.

There are clear indicators that help guide us as to which teams are most likely to go from worst to first. But remember that sometimes teams can take a massive step forward without meeting that criteria. The Commanders didn’t go from worst to first last season, as they finished behind the Eagles in the NFC East, but certainly nobody expected rookie Jayden Daniels to lead them to a 12-5 record.

Let’s go through the eight teams that finished in last place of each division in 2024, ranking them by their odds of winning their divisions in the 2025 season. These odds are from the initial simulation with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which is primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule. I’ll rank them in order, starting with a team that pulled off the opposite feat (first to worst in their division) over the past two seasons.

Jump to a team:
CHI | CLE | LV | NE
NO | NYG | SF | TEN

2024 record: 6-11

Odds of winning division: 35.8% (1st in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 62.4% (3rd in NFC)

The 49ers have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, health and the fact they weren’t really that bad last season.

San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn’t have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978.

The 49ers will return a ton of key players from injuries this season, including running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams. While the Lions’ defense dominated headlines because of its injuries in 2024, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury. That’s a clear indicator for improvement in 2025.

Finally, the 49ers have the easiest projected schedule in the league, which is why FPI favors them to win the NFC West over the Rams, who are rated higher overall. The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions.

2024 record: 5-12

Odds of winning division: 14.9% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 36.1% (10th in NFC)

The Bears finished 22nd in FPI last season, but they’re seen as above-average entering the 2025 season. That’s because Caleb Williams should improve in his second year under center, and the Bears added a lot of talent on the offensive line to give him better protection.

There’s also a lot of optimism about new coach Ben Johnson, but it’s important to remember that teams with new coaches and coordinators tend to take a small step back in the first season. We may not notice this because new coaching staffs are usually brought in after particularly bad seasons, making a slight improvement a simple regression toward the mean.

The biggest issue holding the Bears back this season is that they have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL, per my DVOA rankings (more on the hardest schedule later). All three other NFC North teams (Vikings, Lions and Packers) made the postseason in 2024, and only Minnesota is expected to decline in 2025.

Outside of their divisional play, the Bears have to face the AFC North and NFC East. They also must go on the road to San Francisco and Las Vegas — both teams are on this list, but they should be much better this season.

2024 record: 4-13

Odds of winning division: 14.0% (3rd in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th in AFC)

ESPN’s stats believe in Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR in 2024, as QBR attempts to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?

There are a lot of new faces in New England, which starts with an improvement at head coach in Mike Vrabel. There are new offensive linemen (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skill players (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions include edge rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There’s also a new No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, as soon as he’s fully recovered from last year’s ACL tear.

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With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents.

The problem isn’t the new faces, but the old faces. Namely, the old faces still wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills have the best chance to win their division of any NFL team (65%), making it much more likely that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

2024 record: 5-12

Odds of winning division: 11.6% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 18.4% (15th in NFC)

The Saints are dead last in FPI for 2025, but they have a better chance to win their division than other teams on this list because the NFC South is so weak. Currently, the Buccaneers rank 14th, the Falcons 26th and the Panthers 28th in FPI.

The reason New Orleans is projected at the bottom is in part because of rookie QB Tyler Shough, who could start after Derek Carr’s retirement. Despite Jayden Daniels’ historic 2024 season, rookie quarterbacks are still considered as negative in FPI. You can’t expect rookie QBs to have strong seasons, especially if they’re true second-round picks like Shough.

While the Saints’ offensive projection is 31st in FPI, their defensive projection is 32nd. The unit is expected to be fairly old, including safety Tyrann Mathieu (33), linebacker Demario Davis (36) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (turning 36 in July).

2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 8.9% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 14.8% (14th in AFC)

Again, I must repeat what I wrote about the Saints: You can’t expect rookie QBs to have good seasons. Yes, this is even true for first overall picks like Cameron Ward. After all, Chicago’s Williams finished 28th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR last season.

Then again, Will Levis was dead last out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR last season. So, even a below-average season for Ward will likely be an improvement for Tennessee.

Like New Orleans, the Titans have bigger issues on the other side of the ball — their defense projects at 30th in DVOA. There’s a lot of hope here around veteran cornerback L’Jarius Sneed bouncing back from injury or a big season from unheralded additions such as edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones. But the Titans really didn’t gain much defensive talent this offseason and haven’t drafted many contributors in recent years. They haven’t used a first-round pick on a defensive player since Jeffery Simmons in 2019.

2024 record: 4-13

Odds of winning division: 7.1% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 23.9% (13th in AFC)

Look, the Bills and Ravens have had a horrible time trying to get past Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs over the past couple of seasons. You expect the Raiders to get past him in the regular season?

The idea of the Raiders finishing first seems even less likely when we consider the Broncos and Chargers were both playoff teams a year ago. Los Angeles or Denver have a much better chance of leading the NFC West if Kansas City fell off due to injury or other reasons.

However, the idea of Las Vegas as a playoff contender is not necessarily ridiculous, particularly thanks to the addition of veteran QB Geno Smith. Although Las Vegas ranks at sixth here in overall division odds, it is fourth in playoff odds out of all eight teams.

2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 3.3% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 10.1% (16th in NFC)

It’s a little surprising that FPI doesn’t have the Giants lower, as they are currently 27th in the NFL after being 31st before the 2024 season. But their QB room — with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart — should be an improvement over the options they had last season. I also expect them to have a better defense, which had a very poor turnover rate last season and adds edge rusher Abdul Carter to an exciting pass rush.

The problem for New York is the schedule, rated as the toughest in the NFL based on both FPI and projected DVOA. That starts with the games in their own division, which now has a strong Commanders team, along with games against the NFC North and AFC West. Plus, the Giants play the 49ers and Patriots, who are both mentioned above as teams that should be better in 2025.

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2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 2.7% (4th in division)
Odds of making playoffs: 9.8% (16th in AFC)

Hey, here’s FPI’s current favorite to come home with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft. That sort of projection makes sense, as the Browns have a tough schedule and a messy quarterback room. It’s hard to imagine that either of their rookies, Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders, isn’t starting for this team over Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett by midseason. This year is going to be more about seeing what the Browns have for the future, rather than trying to make the playoffs in the present.

The only bright point for the Browns is their defense, which is probably going to be better than it was a year ago. They fell from second in defensive DVOA in 2023 to 25th a year ago, and that kind of drop is almost always followed by a rebound. Myles Garrett is still there, after all.