A U.S. attack on Iran, which President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing for the possibility of, would “radically destabilize the entire situation,” warned Russia’s deputy foreign minister, as the war between Israel and Iran continues to escalate.
Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax news agency on Wednesday that Russia has advised the U.S. against direct involvement in the conflict, which has already killed hundreds in Iran and dozens in Israel since it erupted less than a week ago.
Ryabkov’s comments come after Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” as he openly pondered authorizing U.S. strikes on the nation’s nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s demand on Wednesday and warned that the U.S. would suffer “irreparable damage” if it joins the war.
Iran and the U.S. have since sent mixed messages about their openness to resolving tensions peacefully.
“Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance,” Iran’s United Nations Mission said in a statement Wednesday after Trump suggested that Iran had proposed a meeting at the White House. In a separate statement hours later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that Iran “remain[s] committed to diplomacy”—with the sole exception of its dealings with Israel, against which Iran has maintained its military actions since last Friday’s attack are in “self-defense.”
Trump offered a cryptic response Wednesday when asked whether he was planning to strike Iran: “I may do it, I may not do it, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he told reporters. The Wall Street Journal later reported that the President approved attack plans but was holding off on the final order to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program, hoping that the threat of U.S. intervention would force Iran’s hand to surrender. “I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due,” Trump told reporters. A source told ABC on Wednesday that Trump has grown comfortable with the idea of striking Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility, after Axios reported that he wanted to make sure the plan would succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program.
Russia, a longtime ally of Iran and nuclear-armed adversary of the U.S., has sounded the alarm about the potential globally-devastating consequences of the conflict, especially should the U.S. military get more involved. “Nuclear facilities are being struck,” foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told Reuters on Wednesday. “Where is the [concern from the] entire world community? Where are all the environmentalists?”
The world, Zakharova warned, is “millimeters” away from catastrophe.
What’s at stake for Russia as Trump turns down Putin’s offers to mediate
Earlier this week, Trump said he was open to Russia mediating in the Middle East, but after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told reporters Wednesday that he turned down an offer.
“I said, ‘Do me a favor. Mediate your own. Let’s mediate Russia first.’ I said, ‘Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first. You can worry about [this] later,’” Trump said.
“It’s a delicate issue,” Putin told senior news leaders on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Wednesday. “In my view, a solution could be found.”
Putin said he has shared proposals for mediation with Iran, Israel, and the U.S.
“We are not imposing anything on anyone; we are simply talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation. But the decision, of course, is up to the political leadership of all these countries, primarily Iran and Israel,” Putin said.
While a prominent Russian general claimed after Israel’s initial attack on Iran last Friday that “World War III” had begun and called for Moscow to prepare the mobilization of a million troops, experts say Russia is unlikely to intervene militarily.
Earlier this year, Russia and Iran deepened their ties with the signing of a strategic partnership, which promised greater economic and military cooperation but crucially did not include a mutual defense clause.
Middle East analyst Marianna Belenkaya told news outlet DW that Russia, which is enmeshed in its own resource-draining war with Ukraine that Trump has pressured Putin to end, is “trying to restore or improve relations with Washington.” Belenkaya suggested that Russia feels no urgent need to offer direct military support, “although some behind-the-scenes involvement can’t be ruled out entirely.”
Hanna Notte, a Russia and Middle East expert at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, posted in a thread on X, that Russia is more likely to focus on trying to take up the role of mediator and calling for deescalation through international bodies.
Russia is navigating a “fine balancing act: How to appear helpful to the U.S. while not freaking out Iran,” Notte wrote. “For now, Russia will play its cards cautiously & observe how the situation plays out – understanding that it has [limited] leverage over the course of events And try to be involved in whatever comes next, while avoiding entanglement/overextension.”
In fact, the turmoil could even prove helpful for Russia, at least in the short term. Russian oil prices rose 15% following the outbreak of the conflict. More critically, it distracts from the war in Ukraine, which has already been sidelined as Trump cancelled a June 17 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to focus on the Middle East.
“Ukraine will suffer the greatest military and political damage in this situation, apart from Iran itself,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based think tank Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, according to the Guardian. “A new war in the Middle East will not only distract the world’s attention from the [war in Ukraine] but will also, apparently, contribute to the final reorientation of the U.S. towards providing military assistance to Israel.”
Still, Russia has a lot to lose. Destabilization in the region could spill over into the South Caucasus where Russia exerts its influence, Notte said on X. And an Iranian regime collapse risks an already diplomatically isolated Russia losing one of its few remaining allies.
“If this regime falls, I think it will be much harder for Russia to retain its assets and influence in the country,” Notte told the Guardian. Russia has invested billions of dollars into gas, energy and infrastructure projects in Iran over the past two years.
Russia, along with China and Pakistan, requested that the U.N. Security Council holds a second emergency meeting on the conflict, which has been scheduled for Friday.
European diplomats will also hold nuclear talks with Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday, a European official told the Associated Press. The meeting will include diplomats from Germany, France, and the U.K., but currently is not set to include the U.S.
Russia urges U.S. not to attack Iran, accuses Israel of sabotaging diplomacy
Trump initially disclaimed involvement in Israel’s attacks on Iran but has since shifted towards an increasingly threatening stance. That has included repositioning U.S. forces, warships, and aircraft to Middle East bases for “defensive” purposes earlier this week and urging “everyone” in Tehran—a city of 9.5 million—to immediately evacuate. When asked by reporters about his warning, Trump said, “I just want people to be safe.”
Among the steps Trump could take is a strike to kill Khamenei, which he suggested the U.S. is capable of doing in a Tuesday Truth Social post—a plan that Israel reportedly initially proposed but Trump previously rejected.
Of the idea, Putin said on Wednesday, “I don’t even want to discuss such a possibility.”
Another possible route the U.S. could take is striking Iran’s deep-underground uranium-enrichment facility at Fordow, which would require powerful bunker-buster bombs that only the U.S. has in its arsenal.
Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter in a Wednesday interview with CNN expressed confidence in Israel’s ability to destroy Fordow but did not go into detail about whether that would entail U.S. support.
“It might require multiple strikes, it might require something else or it might require one of our surprises,” Leiter said. “We have a few tricks up our sleeves.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump on Wednesday, saying in a national address that the two leaders “speak constantly.”
Israel, which has placed pressure on the U.S. to join the war, has also upped its objectives. Leiter said that Israel must eliminate Iran’s ability to make ballistic missiles—in addition to its initial stated aim of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. “They cannot have the weapons that can destroy Israel, which they claim and which they want to do every day,” Leiter said.
Iran has maintained, which Russia has publicly supported, that it has the right to enrich its uranium in line with its civilian nuclear program under the United Nations’ Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation. U.S. intelligence earlier this year concluded that, while Iran has enriched uranium to unprecedented levels, the country was not believed to be developing nuclear weapons, though Trump has since dismissed those reports, saying “I think they were very close to having them.”
Analysts have warned that Israel’s attacks may actually incentivize Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, rather than deterring it.
Aragchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said in his statement Wednesday that “we have never sought and will never seek nuclear weapons. If otherwise, what better pretext could we possibly need for developing those inhuman weapons than the current aggression by the region’s only nuclear-armed regime?”
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said it has lost track of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. Because of ongoing Israeli attacks, inspectors are unable to verify the location of the stockpile, which should be secured at an underground facility at Isfahan but that Tehran had warned the IAEA could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack.
In a statement after Israel’s attack last Friday, Russia’s foreign ministry implied that Israel’s strikes were a “cynical” attempt to sabotage diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
The U.S. was in the midst of protracted talks with Iran centered around the latter’s nuclear program, though discussions had stalled somewhat as Trump Administration officials increased their demands on Iran toward zero nuclear enrichment. A sixth round of talks was meant to take place over the past weekend but was cancelled after Israel’s surprise attack.
Seemingly implicating the U.S. too, Russia’s foreign ministry said in a Tuesday statement that “the confrontational approach and destructive actions of the Israeli leadership receive understanding and support solely from those states which are de facto accomplices, motivated by opportunistic interests.”
“Israel’s continued, intensive attacks,” the Tuesday statement said, “drive the world closer to a nuclear catastrophe.”