Spurs vs. Man Utd: Which Europa League finalist has been worse

This season’s UEFA Europa League — which features two of the Premier League’s biggest clubs, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur — is a curious fixture.

Normally it would be billed as yet another example of the English league’s superior strength in depth compared to the rest of Europe’s major powers. But instead, the prematch narrative has been about how historically poor both teams have been at home this season. With one game of the domestic season remaining, these two teams sit in 16th and 17th place, right above the relegation places (which, lucky for them, have all already been confirmed).

And yet, either Ruben Amorim’s United or Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs, with one non-European win between them since the start of April, will be in next season’s UEFA Champions League, by virtue of lifting the Europa League trophy at Bilbao’s San Mamés stadium on Wednesday.

Spurs have already beaten United three times this season — both home and away in the league, as well as winning a seven-goal thriller in the Carabao Cup — but those results amounted to little for them and pale in comparison to the outcome of a European final.

But which team has had the worst season? Which club, manager and set of players need to win this final the most? And, ultimately, who will win? ESPN writers James Olley and Rob Dawson, who will be covering the final, give their prematch thoughts.

Which team’s season has been worse: Man United’s or Tottenham’s?

Dawson: Let’s be honest, they’ve both been rubbish.

Olley: It’s no wonder this final has been dubbed ‘El Crapico‘ on social media.

Dawson: Neither United nor Spurs should be in the bottom half of the Premier League table given the money they’ve spent. For both to be hovering above the relegation zone is unbelievable. The drop-off for Tottenham has been more pronounced. They finished fifth a year ago, two points outside the Champions League places and three places above United, but have managed to lose more than half of their league games this season.

The money United have spent to assemble their squad makes their league form even more staggering. They’ve invested nearly £400 million in new players in the past two years alone. It’s not easy when you’re dealing with injuries and a midseason change of manager [when Amorim replaced Erik ten Hag], but there is absolutely no excuse for a club of that size to be 16th in the table. Liverpool, for example, have never finished below eighth in the Premier League era.

Olley: United have been laughably bad, but you could argue Spurs’ season is worse because there was no doubt surrounding their manager last summer. While United scouted for Ten Hag’s replacement — only to start the campaign with him and then change their minds — Spurs were quietly eyeing a really positive campaign under Postecoglou. They spent around £65m to sign striker Dominic Solanke and, of course, Postecoglou has a track record of always winning things in his second season. Postecoglou could not understand the furor his comments created, arguing what else could he do but tell the truth. The real source of the surprise, though, was not him stating a fact of his career but the implied confidence that his success would translate to a club like Spurs who have won nothing since 2008.

And over time, he has continued to complain about an injury — one that he seems either unwilling or unable to acknowledge may have been caused, at least in part, by his own methods. Most top clubs have suffered more injuries this season, but Postecoglou’s high-intensity style combined with a willingness to risk players — think Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven against Chelsea in December, when both first-choice center-backs picked up injuries — makes him at least partially responsible. And they’ve lost 21 league games. TWENTY-ONE. Whatever the mitigation — and there is some — that surely can’t be tolerated at a club of Spurs’ stature. It is why the odds are Postecoglou will lose his job no matter what happens in Bilbao, so while United will feel they have some sense of direction, Spurs are probably back at a crossroads again.

Dawson: Ultimately, given the stakes in Bilbao, whoever loses the final will have had the worst season. United and Tottenham have been historically bad, but both can claim that the campaign has been some sort of success if there’s silverware at the end of it. It’s not an exaggeration to say that one of them will find salvation in Spain.

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The winning club will gain a trophy but also potentially earn £100m or more from next season’s UCL. Who needs it more?

Olley: Flip the question on its head where Tottenham are concerned. The money isn’t important. Of course it will help, but Spurs have sufficient room within the current profit and sustainability rules (PSR) to be active in the summer transfer window. This final is more about ending a 17-year wait for a trophy. It has become a psychological hurdle that has come to define the club to some extent, triggering the ‘Spursy’ moniker. Postecoglou has described winning as a potential “turning point in terms of the way the club is perceived but also more how it perceives itself, which is the biggest thing.” And he’s right.

Dawson: United need the money more. As James says, Tottenham are relatively stable financially. That’s certainly not the case at Old Trafford. They’re walking a PSR tightrope, and it’s so serious that good offers to sign academy graduates Alejandro Garnacho and Kobbie Mainoo will have to be considered in the summer. Almost every member of the first-team squad is available for the right fee, and there will have to be outgoing transfers to fund new signings. An injection of cash from the Champions League is vital. It allows Amorim more room to reshape his team in the transfer window and bring in more players suited to his 3-4-2-1 system.

It’s all or nothing because if they don’t win the Europa League then there won’t be European football at all next season. It would give Amorim more time to focus on the Premier League, but that loss of revenue could be catastrophic.

Olley: The Europa League is not the biggest prize, but Spurs supporters aren’t bothered about that. They want to win something to shed the tag of “nearly-men” who always fall short when trophies are in sight. The money is a huge benefit and will aid the club’s development, but, in truth, this game is more important on an existential level for Tottenham.

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Lifting the trophy would mean more for which manager: Amorim or Postecoglou?

Dawson: Amorim probably doesn’t need the complication of Champions League football next season — he’s said it would be beneficial to have more time on the training pitch — but he needs the Europa League trophy. A season that should have been a free hit for the new manager, who was only appointed on Nov. 1 last year, has turned into a nightmare. Because of that, Amorim is already under pressure ahead of his first full campaign. The Europa League trophy buys him time.

Olley: It is the only chance Postecoglou has of saving his job. And, even then, it might not be enough. Ironically, Spurs could find themselves where United were last year: win a trophy unexpectedly at the end of a season where a managerial change felt inevitable. United made a mistake by retaining Ten Hag, so what do Spurs do about Postecoglou?

Dawson: Club sources are adamant that United will stick with Amorim this summer, regardless of the result against Spurs. There is, however, a big difference between starting next season with a trophy in the bag or on the back of a painful defeat in the final. If it goes badly in Bilbao and next season starts with more setbacks in the Premier League, there will be serious questions about his job in October and November. For the most part, Amorim has been given the benefit of the doubt by the fans. Winning a trophy would earn some much-needed credit in the bank.

Olley: Winning a trophy would not silence all the doubts around Postecoglou, but it would make him more attractive to other clubs. He touched on that point himself last month as speculation grew over his position: “I know what my responsibilities are and I am sure if the club decide to go in a different direction there are some outstanding candidates for it. And you know what, maybe someone will think: ‘Ange Postecoglou is not a bad coach, maybe we’ll take a punt on him.'” Win in Bilbao and that queue will be longer; a resounding win could even make Spurs think twice about making a change.

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What about the players? Whose futures could hinge on the result in Bilbao?

Olley: There are some at Spurs who feel Romero will likely push for a move to Atlético Madrid this summer. Winning the Europa League wouldn’t automatically change the defender’s mind, but it would at least strengthen their argument in trying to keep him. Club captain Son Heung-Min is a Spurs great, but he only had a one-year option triggered in his contract by the club, as opposed to any serious discussions over a longer deal. The 32-year-old surely won’t leave this summer, but a match-defining display in a game of this magnitude would be a timely reminder of his talent and silence doubts he may be past his best.

There is uncertainty over striker Richarlison’s future given his ongoing fitness problems, while Postecoglou has previously been strong on the idea that Spurs would take up their option to sign forward Mathys Tel from Bayern Munich. But would missing out on the Champions League money force a rethink about committing £45m on a promising youngster after an indifferent five-month loan spell?

Dawson: The result in Bilbao could have big consequences for some of the players. Whatever the result, midfielder Christian Eriksen and defender Victor Lindelöf are set to leave on free transfers, and United are hoping to get rid of forwards Marcus Rashford, Antony and Jadon Sancho. Beyond that, Champions League revenue would give the club more power to resist offers for Garnacho and Mainoo. Indications in January were that both want to stay at Old Trafford, although there is an acceptance that, ultimately, it’s out of their hands.

Winning the Europa League could also have an impact on Casemiro’s future. The 33-year-old Brazil midfielder has been key in the run to the final, and his experience would be vital in the Champions League next season. But if there’s no European football, you can make the case that it’s better to get his wages off the books and go with a smaller squad.

Finally, who is going to win the final, and why?

Dawson: This season has been disastrous for United, but they have turned up in some big games. Manchester City (2-1) and Liverpool (2-2) away from home and Arsenal (1-1) at Old Trafford were all good performances. The pressure was on in Europa League away legs against Real Sociedad, Lyon and Athletic Club, and they dealt with that, too. It feels set up for a captain’s display from Bruno Fernandes to drag his team over the line. United 3-0 Spurs

Olley: These two teams are so utterly unreliable that it is hard to be confident about any of this. The absences of James Maddison, Lucas Bergvall and most recently Dejan Kulusevski give Spurs a major creativity issue. Postecoglou’s attacking style could also play into United’s strengths in transition if they adopt a typically cavalier approach. With Son also struggling for form and fitness, United may just be in better shape on the night and edge it. United 2-1 Spurs

ESPNBET odds

Match result
Tottenham Hotspur: +175
Manchester United: +150
Draw: +230

To lift trophy
Tottenham Hotspur: -105
Manchester United: -125