For more than half a century, physicians ranked among the most trusted professionals in America. Today, that trust has eroded.

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For more than half a century, physicians ranked among the most trusted professionals in America. Even before modern medicine, when treatments usually failed, patients admired their doctors’ knowledge, dedication and compassion. Today, that trust has eroded, with profound implications for the future of U.S. healthcare.

Gallup polling shows just 44% of Americans rate the quality of care they receive as “good” or “excellent,” the weakest showing since Gallup began asking the question in 2001. Meanwhile, trust in doctors’ honesty and ethics has dropped 14 points since 2021, falling to its lowest point this century.

At first glance, you might assume that this decline resulted from recent developments: COVID-19, political polarization and rising vaccine skepticism. Instead, today’s drop in confidence is the predictable result of decisions set in motion some 20 years ago.

How The Arc Bent

To understand why patients now rate their doctors so poorly, we need to trace the full arc of modern medicine: how trust was built, how it peaked and why it declined.

The arc began with the arrival of antibiotics in the 1920s and ‘30s. Before then, doctors more often offered patients hope and compassion rather than cures. But with the availability of sulfa drugs and, later, penicillin, a doctor’s visit was more likely to prolong a life than shorten it.

The second half of the 20th century became medicine’s golden era. In this next section of the arc, breakthroughs in surgery, transplantation, chemotherapy and vaccines were paired with broader access through employer-sponsored insurance and the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. Life expectancy climbed year after year, and public confidence in doctors soared.

But every arc bends. By the 1990s, the daily demands of clinical practice had shifted. Acute problems like pneumonia or broken bones — conditions that often could be treated in a single encounter — gave way to chronic illnesses such as diabetes, heart failure and hypertension. These conditions demand lifelong management: frequent monitoring, medication adjustments and repeated follow-ups.

As chronic disease became more common, and as patients and patients struggled to manage these ever-present conditions, the result was an epidemic of heart attacks, strokes, cancers and kidney failures. Costs soared while clinical outcomes stagnated.

Insurers, caught between surging costs and payer resistance, had only one lever to pull: rationing. They rolled out high-deductible plans, imposed prior authorization requirements and denied more claims. Doctors, meanwhile, reassured by high patient satisfaction scores, resisted transformation. Most kept practicing in small, siloed offices under fee-for-service, a payment model that rewards volume over outcomes. Many who sought stability and greater reimbursement sold their practices to hospitals or private equity firms. Few found the relief they hoped for.

Why Patients Feel Differently Now

As the gap between patient needs and physician capacity widened, access to care steadily eroded. Appointments that once took days to schedule began stretching into weeks or even months, both in primary and specialty care. And when patients finally got through the door, visits felt hurried. With doctors averaging just 17 minutes per encounter, there was little time to listen fully, explain thoroughly or follow up afterward.

The consequences were predictable. Delayed appointments allowed medical problems to worsen. Rushed exams led to misdiagnoses. And for patients left waiting, worrying or returning with complications, the logical conclusion was that their doctors didn’t care.

The Doctor’s Denial

Even as patients noticed the increasingly compromised quality, most medical professionals clung to the belief that small fixes could repair the system and restore the doctor-patient bond. They lobbied for a few more dollars from Medicare, a little less billing paperwork and fewer insurer-imposed prior authorizations. But with less than half of Americans now confident in the quality of care they receive — and premiums projected to rise nearly 9% next year — physicians can see that major healthcare reform is required. The era of denial is ending.

Patient confidence has now collapsed. A minority of Americans rate their care as excellent, and the data back them up. Life expectancy remains the same in the United States today as it was in 2010. And healthcare now consumes nearly one-fifth of the nation’s GDP, with half of Americans struggling to afford their medical bills. The question clinicians are asking is what can we do? Other industries provide answers.

Lessons From Business Turnarounds

Clay Christensen observed that companies and their leaders resist transformation until it is too late, and disaster strikes. Intel’s recent struggles illustrate how even once-great companies can go from the world’s best to an “also ran.” The lesson for the medical profession: that recognize the crisis early enough and embrace bold strategies are the ones that survive.

Their approach and ultimate success fall into two categories:

1. They maximize operational excellence to close the gap between demand and capacity. In the 1970s, for example, Southwest couldn’t match the major carriers on brand reputation, so it had to become cost effective. It chose to maximize collaboration. Pilots, flight attendants and ground crews operated as a tightly integrated team, following consistent steps at every airport. Planes turned around in 10 minutes, not 30. That efficiency allowed Southwest to schedule six flights a day (one more than the competition) without purchasing more planes or adding staff.
2. They embrace new technologies that can increase quality and lower cost. Take Netflix as an example. What began as a DVD-by-mail service pivoted early to streaming. Even before broadband was widespread, Netflix bet on the future. The model slashed costs, improved accessibility and delivered higher-quality viewing. Subscriptions stayed affordable, households remained loyal, and the company reshaped an entire industry.

Healthcare can learn from this. In this scenario, doctors would join together to achieve economies of scale, collaborate across specialties to avoid duplication of services and minimize resource waste through clinical care coordination. Moreover, they would apply the principle of specialization to create high-volume centers of excellence capable of providing consistently high quality with far greater efficiency and significantly lower costs.

Medicine could emulate this approach. Physicians would embrace generative AI, take financial risk under a capitated model, find ways to better control chronic disease and empower patients to take on more of their own care. This would decrease demand on doctors, free-up time for their most complex patients and reduce burnout. But this scenario won’t happen if the payment methodology remains “pay-for-volume,” or if new technologies are relegated to administrative tasks rather than applied to improve clinical effectiveness and efficiency.

Of course, there is a third possibility: doctors cling to denial. In this scenario, they keep running faster and faster on the treadmill, cutting more corners each year and hoping small fixes will make a difference.

If this is the path medicine follows, annual costs will outpace inflation, quality will continue to decline, and the gap between healthcare prices and what patients can afford will widen. To fill in the void, entrepreneurs will seize the opportunity and develop generative AI tools that replace (rather than complement) physicians. When that day comes, doctors will regret not acting while they still could.