Trump bill will generate surplus not debt, challenging CBO projections

The Republican Congress and President Donald Trump just delivered a major victory to the American people by passing and enacting into law the historic One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB). Predictably, liberal media outlets – led by CNN, MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post – continue to insist the OBBB will add trillions of dollars to our national debt.  

The truth – backed by both historical experience and robust economic analysis – is the exact opposite. President Trump’s OBBB will not only boost jobs and take-home pay for America’s working-class families. It will slash deficits by trillions of dollars even as its targeted expenditures will strengthen our national defense and secure our borders. As a bonus, OBBB will rapidly accelerate the deportation of millions of illegal aliens now stealing jobs from American citizens and driving down wages.   

At the center of the Fake News misinformation storm is the Congressional Budget Office. For years, the CBO has been trapped in a stale left-wing Keynesian mindset and stubbornly committed to static scoring models that fail to grasp how real-world economies respond to bold, pro-growth policies. As someone who has witnessed President Trump craft his economic agenda from inside the West Wing, I can tell you firsthand: when you cut taxes, slash job-killing regulations, achieve energy dominance, defend America’s manufacturing base with tariffs and fight for fair trade, the economy doesn’t just inch forward – it takes off. 

Exhibit A: The Trump 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. I was there when the CBO confidently projected a return to a sleepy Obama-Biden “new normal” 1.8–2.0% trend growth. But what actually happened?  

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ WILL UNLEASH PARALLEL PROSPERITY

In 2018, real GDP roared ahead at 2.9%. Business investment surged. Hundreds of billions in overseas profits came home. Small businesses and consumers finally felt like Washington had their backs – and they responded by spending, investing and hiring. All of this completely blindsided the bean counters at CBO, who missed the wave of innovation and confidence that Trump’s policies ignited. 

Comes now CBO 2.0 – once again stumbling into the Trump policy arena with its trademark combination of backward-looking modeling and partisan blind spots. Instead of learning from its spectacular misfire on the Trump 2017 tax bill, the CBO is now recycling the same flawed assumptions to smear the fiscal integrity of President Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill – and the Fake News is eating it up. 

Here’s how the tired old misinformation act of the CBO has unfolded: At the outset of scoring the OBBB, the CBO defaulted to its static methodology. As in 2017, it assumed a chronically underwhelming annual real GDP growth rate of just 1.8% –  the same stale figure it has clung to for over a decade, regardless of the supply-side reforms at play. Unsurprisingly, the result of the CBO’s debut analysis of OBBB was a headline-grabbing forecast of $3.9 trillion added to the national debt over the next 10 years. 

Of course, this initial forecast came under withering fire for two glaring omissions. First, as in 2017, it ignored the dynamic growth effects baked into the OBBB’s permanent tax cuts, deregulatory measures, and investment incentives. Second, it refused to account for the revenue-generating power of Trump’s tariff policy, which the White House projects will generate as much as $2.8 trillion over the same decade. 

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Under heavy fire, the CBO scrambled to release a second “dynamic” estimate – but once again, they blew it. This time, they cooked the books by frontloading the bill’s costs, artificially inflating the early debt load. That let them assume a spike in interest rates, which then conveniently wiped out the very growth their model was supposed to measure. It was a masterclass in bureaucratic sabotage disguised as fiscal analysis. 

To wit: When you frontload spending – particularly on growth-oriented tax relief and business investment incentives – you should also frontload the growth surge those policies trigger. More investment, more jobs and more productivity from this dynamic growth surge translate into higher revenues and lower debt burdens, not higher. And with reduced borrowing needs, interest rates should fall – not rise – as the market prices in stronger fiscal sustainability. 

Had the CBO conducted an intellectually honest dynamic analysis AND accurately accounted for the Trump tariffs, it would have forecast a massive multitrillion-dollar surplus, NOT an equally massive increase in the debt. Instead, what we got was yet another ideological forecast designed to discredit a Trump-led growth agenda that history has already vindicated once before. 

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This CBO trash is what the Fake News is taking out now every day and night before the American people in its Trump Derangement Syndrome efforts to discredit what is beyond question a truly Big, Beautiful and FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE bill. 

Here’s the Real News: President Trump has designed a tax cut that will not just pay for itself through more rapid economic growth and robust tariff collections. OBBB will reduce America’s deficits by the trillions while financing everything from no taxes on tips and overtime to a much stronger national defense and far secure border. Get ready for the rocket ship. 

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