Trump isn't ready for a ceasefire with Massie
Just as President Donald Trump appears to have hit pause on a major conflict in the Middle East, he is intensifying one at home.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is the chief target of the president’s powerful political operation, which is looking to oust the outspoken congressman in the GOP primary next year.
The congressman has been a thorn in the president’s side in the past, but Massie’s latest threat to introduce a resolution aimed at reining in presidential war powers comes as Trump was already seething about Massie’s multiple attempts to thwart the “big, beautiful bill” ahead of Republicans’ self-imposed July 4 deadline.
Massie has easily beat back challenges before, including a raft of money from pro-Israel donors. But this time, the six-term Congressman’s strong independent political brand may not withstand the blitz that the president’s allies appear ready to unleash. Not only has Trump vowed to campaign “really hard” against Massie next year, his political operation has launched a super PAC dedicated solely to defeating the Kentuckian.
“He’s probably more vulnerable than he’s been since he first won in a primary because of all this,’ said GOP strategist and former Kentucky state Rep. Adam Koenig. “There’s money outside of Trump world ready to go after Massie.”
Trump’s political apparatus began ramping up its efforts to boot Massie after the representative voted against the party’s massive tax-and-spending package for the president’s domestic policy priorities when it first went through the House last month. It went public with its plans — a super PAC dubbed Kentucky MAGA led by two of the president’s most-trusted lieutenants, Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio, first reported by Axios — as Massie pushed to reassert congressional authority over Trump’s military actions in Iran.
“He has established himself as a contrarian for contrarian sake,” LaCivita said in a text message to POLITICO. “He should be a man and switch parties instead of posing as a Republican.”
The president and his advisers have viciously attacked Massie on social media in recent days, with Trump marshalling his MAGA base to dump “LOSER” Massie and “GET THIS ‘BUM’ OUT OF OFFICE.”
Trump and Massie have had a contentious relationship dating back to the president’s first term, when he pushed to “throw Massie out of the Republican Party” after the Kentucky Republican erected a roadblock to Trump’s Covid-19 relief package in March 2020. Trump later endorsed Massie’s 2022 reelection bid and Massie backed Trump in 2024 — but only after initially supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary.
But now that Trump is back in the Oval Office, Massie has attempted to cripple the president’s legislative agenda multiple times, including becoming the only Republican to vote against a stopgap government funding bill in March. Unlike in the past, the president appears to be making good on his threats to try getting Massie out of office by putting a super PAC on the case.
“I think there’s a real opportunity…they’re going to spend upwards of $30 million to defeat Thomas Massie,” said one Kentucky GOP political operative who, like many interviewed for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive intraparty matters.
The operative, who did not vote for Trump, also heard rumblings that AIPAC, one of the most prominent pro-Israel groups, is also ready to spend big in the May 2026 Kentucky primary — suggesting Massie’s anti-war efforts may be met with resistance on multiple fronts. Some Republican strategists estimate combined spending could reach as high as $45 million, an unheard of total for a primary contest in the 4th Congressional District. (The only outside spending against Massie in last year’s primary was about $320,000 from AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project.)
Even Speaker Mike Johnson hedged Tuesday on whether he would support Massie next year — despite acknowledging it’s his job as the top House Republican to protect his party’s incumbents.
“I certainly understand the president’s frustration” with Massie, Johnson told reporters at the Capitol. “If you’re here and you’re wearing one team’s jersey and every single time you vote with the other team, people begin to question … why you’re so consistently opposed to the platform, the agenda of your party.”
But Massie appears unfazed by Trump and his allies’ electoral threats.
“In 2020 I got my Trump antibodies from a natural infection when he came after me, and I survived,” Massie quipped to reporters on Tuesday. “It will deplete his political capital if he doesn’t succeed, and he knows that. So that’s got to be part of his calculus.”
In fact, Massie is embracing the fight. On Twitter, he teased an interview with podcaster Theo Von, a sign that he’s seeking to widen his exposure in a format that favors Massie’s unique brand of an isolationist budget hawk. He’s fundraising off the social-media sparring with Trump, telling Hill reporters Monday evening that he’d raised roughly $120,000 in 24 hours.
And he’s still pledging to move ahead with his war powers resolution if the ceasefire between Iran and Israel doesn’t hold, saying in television interviews and to Hill reporters it’s “not clear the war is over.”
Overhanging the primary threat is the question of exactly which candidate Trump’s allies have in mind to run against the incumbent. Already, some think first-term state Rep. Aaron Reed, a retired Navy Seal and gun shop owner who is rarely seen without his cowboy hat, would be a possible challenger. Another option is state Rep. Kimberly Moser, who is not thought of as traditionally MAGA, but has over the years made inroads with the Trump wing of the party. There are some potential outsiders who might have the means to self-fund a campaign as well, like political pundit Scott Jennings or former gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft.
“I think it’s too soon to know if his outright opposition to what Trump has done – and I think it’s pretty horrible what [Massie’s] done – will make a difference,” said Ellen Williams, a former chair of the Kentucky GOP. “You can’t just put anybody up against him and spend a shitload of money. I just think it emboldens him.”
Members of Kentucky’s congressional delegation say Massie’s sprawling district, which runs along the northern border along Ohio and Indiana and stretches from the southern Cincinnati suburbs to the outer bands of the Louisville metro area, is a unique cross-section of the state that appears to relish Massie’s independent streak.
It’s home to some of the most prominent members of the “liberty faction” of the Kentucky Republican Party, a group that embraces Trump while also gravitating toward libertarian-leaning Republicans like Massie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. The senator has weathered his own barrage of attacks from Trump for voicing opposition to the megabill and defended Massie to POLITICO on Tuesday.
Massie is “very popular in Kentucky,” Paul said. “I will continue to support him.”
“His district is different,” Rep. James Comer, a fellow Kentucky Republican, said Tuesday on Capitol Hill, though he declined to weigh in on the conflict between Massie and Trump. “That’s a unique congressional district.”
Former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson believes Trump, as much as he is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party, may be overplaying his hand when it comes to Massie’s district.
“As popular as Trump is in Republican politics, as popular as Trump is in Kentucky, as popular as Trump is in the 4th District, on the substance, on the policy, Thomas wins those arguments over Trump,” Grayson said. “Until you see someone step up, Thomas is still pretty formidable.”
He also warned of repercussions for Trump, who — constitutionally barred from seeking office again — is a lame duck. If the representative is able to fend off a primary challenge, it could open the floodgates for others who have private misgivings about the president’s actions.
“It will make a difference if Massie were to overcome this,” Grayson added. “If he wins, if you’re a member, you’d be more likely to speak out in the future.”
Massie’s never been in serious jeopardy in the GOP primary. His closest primary contest was when he first ran for Congress in 2012 when he defeated Alecia Webb-Edgington, a state representative, to succeed the retiring Rep. Geoff Davis by roughly 7,000 votes. In subsequent primary contests, Massie cruised to victory in otherwise low-turnout primaries where he won with no less than 60 percent of the vote.
Many operatives believe Trump would need to juice primary turnout considerably to succeed in his quest to topple Massie. Some cautioned that Trump’s popularity 11 months from now could shift considerably.
Massie was matter-of-fact about the challenges before him Tuesday afternoon when addressing reporters.
“I just have to spend more money if he gets in the race,” Massie said, when asked his thoughts on Trump meddling in his primary. He then laid out a pair of scenarios, one in which Trump endorses someone and then backtracks on the endorsement — as the president has done before. He floated another in which Trump’s allies lay down a lot of money and groundwork, only to abandon its efforts down the line.
“They’re gonna try to talk to somebody in the race…tell them that the Trump endorsement is coming, and then they’ll wait to see if that person can get close. And if that person can get close, then Trump may get in,” Massie said. “If that person can’t, they’ll leave that person hanging on the bone.”