The Israel-Iran war, which is now in its sixth day and has already killed hundreds in Iran and dozens in Israel, could soon enter a perilous new phase should the U.S. join the fight.
According to recent reports, Donald Trump is actively weighing with his national security team whether to order U.S. strikes on Iran, as the President has publicly toughened his language about the conflict in a series of posts on his platform Truth Social.
In the initial days after Israel launched its attack on Iran last Friday, the U.S. repeatedly disclaimed involvement. But as Iran vowed to retaliate against both Israel and the U.S., Israel’s primary arms supplier, Trump’s tone shifted. On Saturday, he warned: “If we are attacked in any way, shape, or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.”
Still, at that time, Trump reiterated a preference for diplomacy that had long been a feature of his political campaigns, in which he rallied against past interventionist U.S. administrations and promised during his second-term inaugural address to “stop all wars.”
“We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict,” his post on Saturday ended.
However, as Trump abruptly left the G7 summit early on Monday night to focus on the Middle East, he clarified that he was no longer interested in making nice with Iran.
“They should have done the deal. I told them, ‘Do the deal,’” Trump told reporters on his return to the White House from the summit, in apparent reference to negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program that were underway but disrupted by Israel’s attack. “So I don’t know. I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate.”
Trump had posted earlier Monday: “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
On Tuesday morning, he posted that French President Emanuel Macron was “wrong” to suggest that Trump was heading back to Washington to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. “He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.” In a follow-up post, Trump added: “I have not reached out to Iran for ‘Peace Talks’ in any way, shape, or form.”
By Tuesday afternoon, Trump made his desire clear. “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” he posted on Truth Social after a series of posts in which he hailed American military superiority, claiming “complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” and he appeared to threaten Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming to know where he is hiding and warning: “He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
Hours later, Khamenei posted, “the battle begins.”
Trump considers military intervention
While the U.S. has officially maintained that it was not involved in Israel’s initial attack on Iran beyond being informed by Israel ahead of the strike, the New York Times reported this week that the U.S. offered Israel as-yet-undisclosed intelligence support—and that Trump is seriously considering a more serious escalation.
The White House’s official position—as warships, aircraft, and personnel have been moved to the Middle East in recent days—is that U.S. forces are only mobilizing in the region for “defensive” purposes. But officials have told multiple news outlets, including the Times, CBS, and NBC, that Trump is considering acting first, rather than waiting to see if Iran will attack.
The potential next courses of action Trump could take range from sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets, according to the Times, to striking Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow with so-called bunker buster bombs that the U.S. has but Israel doesn’t. Trump has told confidants in private conversations that he is now leaning towards the latter, the Times reported. According to the Times, Trump earlier this year authorized U.S. Central Command to coordinate with Israel on refining and developing Pentagon plans for how to take out Iran’s nuclear sites.
Another potential course of action could be a strike to kill Khamenei, as Trump warned on Truth Social. The latter is a plan that was reportedly proposed by Israel over the weekend and rejected by Trump who was worried then that it would escalate the conflict and destabilize the region.
As Trump claimed Tuesday to know Khamenei’s location, Iranian state television urged people to remove the popular encrypted-messaging app WhatsApp from their phones, alleging that the Meta-owned platform shared user information with Israel. WhatsApp said in a statement that it is “concerned these false reports will be an excuse for our services to be blocked at a time when people need them the most” and that WhatsApp does not provide “bulk information to any government” nor track users’ precise locations or personal messages.
Of course, the U.S. could also be dragged into greater military intervention if attacked, and Iran is reportedly preparing missiles for a potential retaliatory strike on U.S. bases in the Middle East in case of further U.S. military engagement in the war.
Even before Trump ramped up his threats, Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement after Israel’s first attack that the strike “could not have been carried out without coordination with and approval of the United States” and that the U.S. would be “held responsible” for its support of Israel. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday after further attacks were traded between Israel and Iran that Iran had “well-documented and solid evidence” of U.S. assistance to Israel.
U.S. intelligence earlier this year had concluded that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei had not reauthorized the country’s suspended nuclear weapons program, according to testimony in March by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and intelligence reports made public in November. But Trump dismissed Gabbard’s testimony this week, telling reporters aboard Air Force One on his way back from the G7 summit: “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having them.”
Analysts have noted that Israel’s attacks may change Iran’s outlook on its nuclear program and could actually incentivize the country to try to develop a nuclear weapon. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, told the Times that the incentive would “multiply dramatically if the United States joins the war.”
A number of lawmakers across both parties have expressed concern about Trump authorizing military action without a congressionally-approved declaration of war.
Vice President J.D. Vance posted on X Tuesday that Trump “may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president.” And Trump himself shared a message from U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee that compared the choice before Trump to former President Harry Truman’s in 1945, when he decided to drop atomic bombs on Japan. “I trust your instincts,” the message from Huckabee said. “No president in my lifetime has been in a position like yours.”