Grocery stores are eating turkey costs this Thanksgiving.
A surge in bird flu cases has spiked wholesale turkey prices for groceries and retailers, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows. But those price shocks aren’t being passed to shoppers, as USDA data shows advertised turkey prices holding steady compared with last year.
Experts say grocery stores are stomaching the increased costs in an effort to bring customers in, though turkey dinner price projections show meal prices have held steady, as well.
The increased costs can be traced to lower supply, with bird flu one of the culprits. Bird flu cases spiked among commercial poultry farms in the fall. As of October, more than 2 million turkeys have been culled this year because of exposure to flu.
Minnesota, the country’s top turkey producer, experienced six confirmed turkey-related outbreaks in October, according to the USDA.
David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, added that a second virus, avian metapneumovirus, is reducing the number of viable eggs that hens are producing, which makes it difficult for turkey farmers to rebuild their flocks.
The result: Turkey supply is tightening. The USDA projected turkey production to fall to 4.8 million pounds for the year, a drop from 5.1 million pounds in 2024.
The tight supply has led to higher prices for stores. Data from the USDA shows that the wholesale price of frozen birds, which are most commonly used in Thanksgiving dinners, increased 80% from November 2024 to November 2025, from less than $1 per pound to more than $1.70.
A separate USDA report shows retail prices for conventional frozen turkeys staying steady year over year. Ortega said retailers may be eating the price hikes to keep shoppers from fleeing.
“Retailers use turkeys as a loss leader,” Ortega said. “It’s a pricing strategy, where they put the product and price it at or sometimes even below cost in an effort to draw customers into the store. They make up for that with other items in the basket consumers buy.”
Turkeys aren’t the only food on the holiday dinner table, and projections for the overall meal are mixed, with some data sources showing costs are up as much as 9.8%, while others show prices decreasing up to 5%.
Food prices have been in the headlines in recent weeks. President Donald Trump claimed this month that the cost of Thanksgiving has decreased this year, pointing to Walmart’s Thanksgiving bundle at less than $40. However, the 2025 package contained six fewer items than last year’s.
Ortega said it’s clear food costs are “top of mind” for consumers.
“Retailers know budgets are tight, so they’re competing to draw customers,” he said.
