What comes next in the Trump-Musk feud: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Kristen Welker dives into what comes next in the breakup between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Plus, our Capitol Hill team examines the senators who could make or break Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” And Shannon Pettypiece answers this week’s reader question on the U.S.-China trade war.

Before we dive into all that, two bits of breaking news this Friday afternoon:

• Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man whose erroneous deportation to El Salvador gave way to a protracted battle over due process, has been returned to the U.S. to face human smuggling charges in Tennessee.
• The Supreme Court allowed members of the Department of Government Efficiency to access Social Security Administration data.

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— Adam Wollner

What’s next in the feud between Trump and Musk?

By Kristen Welker

The feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump erupted yesterday in an epic clash between the world’s richest man and the world’s most powerful man — and it’s not clear yet where the confrontation will go next.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told me this morning that there are “no plans” for a phone call between Trump and Musk today, despite at least one report that it was a possibility. But just because there’s nothing on the books doesn’t mean the two men won’t have an impromptu call. After all, Trump has a personal cellphone where he often talks to everyone from world leaders to reporters. And one administration official told me anything can happen, and they’d like to “de-escalate a very unfortunate situation.”

While the White House may be looking to turn down the temperature, some of the president’s allies were quick to go after Musk. Steve Bannon, a former Trump White House adviser, told me the president should “pull every contract associated with Elon Musk” and start major investigations “immediately.” Bannon also said, “Thus spake the ketamine,” in a sign that some of Trump’s allies are zeroing in on Musk’s alleged drug use. (Musk has said he took ketamine to treat depression.)

At stake in all of this is the future of Trump’s signature legislation, which includes tax cut extensions, an elimination of tax on tips and overtime, and cuts and changes to federal programs including Medicaid and food stamps.

Musk has trashed the “big, beautiful bill,” arguing that it would balloon the country’s debt. Sources from the White House and on Capitol Hill have told me that while Musk’s opposition might embolden Republican senators who are already opposed to the measure, Musk is not flipping any more votes to the “no” column at this point. I’m also told that if these senators had to choose between Trump and Musk, they’d choose Trump every time.

We’ll talk more about the next steps for Trump’s domestic policy bill on “Meet the Press” this Sunday, with exclusive interviews with Sens. James Lankford, R-Okla. and Cory Booker, D-N.J.

Behind the scenes: Trump’s team is taking the feud seriously: White House aides scrambled into at least two closed-door meetings Thursday to strategize about whether and how to respond to Musk’s social media barrage.

Vice President JD Vance was with Trump on Thursday when the tweets began and they spoke multiple times in the afternoon, according to a person familiar with the day’s events. Trump encouraged Vance to be diplomatic about Musk if asked about him, the person said.

Meanwhile, Trump is considering selling or giving away the red Tesla that he purchased in March, according to a senior White House official.

Read more on the Trump-Musk feud →

The senators to watch as Republicans make changes to Trump’s big bill

By Sahil Kapur, Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp V

Amid the back-and-forth between Donald Trump and Elon Musk this week, Senate Republican leaders have been juggling a host of competing demands as they prepare to take up — and make changes to — the House-passed “big, beautiful bill.”

They can ultimately afford to lose just three GOP votes on the Senate floor, assuming all Democrats oppose the package as expected. Here are the senators who could make or break the bill:

Rand Paul: He’s the only Republican senator who has voted against this legislation every step of the way. He has blasted the spike in military spending, the huge increase in deficits and, in particular, the $5 trillion debt limit hike. Paul does support a key part of the package — an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — but he wants to offset it with trillions of dollars in additional spending cuts, on which the GOP has no hope of finding consensus.

Susan Collins: The Maine senator is the sole Republican to represent a state that Democrats consistently win at the presidential level. And she faces re-election this year. Her trajectory has been revealing, from supporting the initial budget resolution to voting against the revised version. A key reason for her opposition? Concerns that the Medicaid cuts would harm low-income and older constituents.

Lisa Murkowski: When she voted for the budget blueprint in April that kick-started the process of writing the legislation, the Alaska Republican quickly followed it up with a broad set of grievances that will need to be addressed, or she’ll be “unable to support” the final product. That includes the changes to Medicaid, the cost of the tax cuts and the phaseout of clean energy tax credits that benefit her state.

Ron Johnson: The Wisconsin Republican has railed against the bill and its estimated $2.4 trillion contribution to the deficit, insisting he can’t vote for it as written. He has slammed the idea of a megabill, calling for breaking it up and limiting the debt ceiling hike. Trump asked him to be “less negative” during a meeting at the White House this week, Johnson said.

Read more on the other key senators to watch →

Grabbing the third rail: Senate Republicans open the door to cutting Medicare ‘waste’ in Trump agenda bill

✉️ Mailbag: Who loses in a U.S.-China trade war?

Thanks to everyone who emailed us! This week’s reader question is on the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.

“Who is in worse shape if the two countries don’t trade any longer?”

To answer this, we turned to senior policy reporter Shannon Pettypiece, who has been covering the ins and outs of Trump’s tariff agenda. Here’s her response:

Both the U.S. and China have a lot to lose by cutting off trade ties with each other, but in some ways, not as much as they did before the first wave of China tariffs Trump imposed in 2018.

Chinese companies have been shifting production offshore, to neighboring countries like Vietnam and even Mexico, while Chinese officials have worked to boost trade with other trading partners, like the European Union. The share of total Chinese exports to the U.S. has dropped to an estimated 14% in 2024 from 19% in 2018. Across China’s entire economy, U.S. exports account for 3% of China’s gross domestic product, and a sustained U.S. tariff rate of 60% could reduce China’s GDP by 2 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs.

In short, that would be bad for China’s economy, but not entirely crippling. China’s economy isn’t on the strongest footing at the moment. Its growth has slowed since the Covid pandemic and the country is grappling with a collapse in its real estate market, which has wiped out the savings for many Chinese.

The U.S. has also been working to lessen its dependence on China in recent years, and U.S. companies have increasingly been shifting their manufacturing out of China. China accounts for about 15% of total U.S. imports, down from about 22% in 2018. But the U.S. is still heavily dependent on China in a number of key areas, like rare earth metals crucial for U.S. manufacturing of cars and defense equipment. About a third of U.S. imports from China are in product categories where the vast majority of those items come from China, according to Goldman Sachs. That means, even a temporary halt to shipments from China could lead to supply chain shortages, like those seen during the Covid pandemic.

But who blinks first or offers more concessions in a trade standoff could have just as much to do with politics as economics. China removed term limits on President Xi Jinping in 2018, essentially allowing him to remain in power for life. Meanwhile, the U.S. will have midterm elections next year and another presidential contest in 2028.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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