Who will win Euro 2025? What the stats say about England’s chances of retaining title

No reigning champion has ever lost their first game at the next tournament (W7, D5) while the Lionesses have also won each of their past 14 group-stage games at major tournaments – the World Cup and Euros – which is the longest ever such run by a European nation.

So, we can expect a promising start by England – who are the only team at Euro 2025 that have won their most recent meeting against each of their group opponents – and that should quieten down some of the negative noise that has surrounded the squad pre-tournament.

Wiegman has come under pressure to stabilise the England camp quickly after they lost three key players just a month out from the Euros.

Mary Earps (retired), Millie Bright (unavailable for selection) and Fran Kirby (not selected, then retired) will play no part in Switzerland but were all part of an England starting XI that went unchanged from the first group stage game to the final in their 2022 success.

That leaves Hannah Hampton as England’s number one for the tournament, though in fairness the signs were there that that would be the case even without Earps’ retirement.

The Chelsea goalkeeper has won just 16 senior caps compared to Earps’ 53, but started 10 of England’s 16 games between the start of 2024 and the 32-year-old’s retirement.

Looking more specifically at just competitive fixtures, and across the period since the end of the 2023 World Cup, the stats do suggest Hampton is the correct choice to be the Lionesses’ first-choice keeper.

In that time, Hampton has a superior save rate (67.9% to 63%), has kept more clean sheets (five to two) and has conceded fewer goals than expected as per Opta’s expected goals-on-target model (1.4). Earps on the other hand conceded more than the model expected (-1.1).

The 24-year-old – who was a joint-winner of the 2024-25 Women’s Super League Golden Glove award – is seemingly more trusted with her feet too, averaging 36 passes per 90 minutes compared to 29 per 90 for Earps. That being said, Earps did post a better passing accuracy across that period than Hampton (83.8% to 79.6%).